Raila or Ruto? Kalonzo’s sticky political situation
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses journalists at a party retreat in a Naivasha hotel on February 19, 2023.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is a man in a sticky situation, stuck between an unrelenting Raila Odinga showing signs of pushing on up to 2027, and an ambitious President William Ruto said to be making overtures to him.
Mr Musyoka, a former vice president who has proved to be the kingpin of the two-million voting bloc of Ukambani in three successive elections, this week said his team had two options, with his top party organ firmly siding with him sticking with Mr Odinga. But this option, though most preferred, is fraught with challenges.
At 69, Mr Musyoka is not getting any younger, with his closest allies saying Mr Odinga has to publicly declare his support for him early. In the Azimio coalition, the list, however, is longer than just Mr Odinga. It also has its 2022 running mate Martha Karua (Narc-K), former Defence minister Eugene Wamalwa (Dap-K), and Mr Odinga’s deputy in ODM, former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya.
Having shelved his ambition for the sake of Mr Odinga—and this time round he was not picked as running mate unlike in 2013 and 2017—the last general election gave the Wiper boss an opportunity to reinvent himself by delivering more votes to the former Prime Minister than all the other bigwigs in Azimio, giving him the biggest bargaining chip.
Mr Musyoka bagged all the governor seats in the region—Machakos, Kitui and Makueni, with the three counties delivering 769,985 votes to Mr Odinga’s basket against 250,188 that went to Dr Ruto. This was a bit lower than what the former Prime Minister got in 2017, which stood at 968,437 votes.
Wiper has 20 MPs, third highest in Azimio after ODM’s 76 and Jubilee’s 24. Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo and Kitui Central MP Makali Mulu want Mr Odinga to hand over to the Wiper boss. “It is too early to start talking about 2027, but my party leader will vie with or without the support of Raila Odinga. We also expect that they will sit down and come up with a formidable force. It is going to be serious this time around,” said Mr Maanzo.
Dr Mulu, for his part, said: “Our party is fully committed to Azimio for now and will continue working within the Azimio coalition framework. The presidential candidacy of our party leader remains on course, whether Raila Odinga supports him or not.”
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, another ally of Mr Musyoka, says their focus now is to ensure the anomalies of the 2022 August General are dealt with before crafting the 2027 game plan. “Wiper, ODM, Dap-K and all the other Azimio-Oka affiliate parties are determined to hold together. For now, the most important focus is to fix the gross anomalies of the 2022 General Election. It would be premature to divert our attention from 2022 because it is not over until it is over,” he said.
“My party leader can't fit in an imaginary political box. The leadership opportunities and options open to him are numerous. But he shall only do that which is in the best interest of the country. His commitment to servant leadership transcends empty rhetoric; he means it. And he has a solid support base within and beyond the Wiper fraternity.”
While Mr Musyoka has positioned himself to offer leadership in the absence of Mr Odinga, political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argues that he might face a Herculean task as he has not consolidated regions beyond his Ukambani base. “Kalonzo is positioning himself as the de facto Azimio leader and 2027 presidential candidate.
Kalonzo will face challenges because he has no magnetic appeal outside his traditional base and will need to develop capacity and competence to attract leaders and supporters to his camp. Majority don’t see Kalonzo as a credible presidential candidate because he has not displayed the political killer instinct,” he explained.
Dr Erick Komolo, a political analyst, argues that Mr Musyoka has to strategically place himself in Azimio to inherit Mr Odinga strongholds, adding that in case he leaves the coalition, it would have serious ramifications on his presidential bid come 2027.
Last year, Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga said: “You have stood with Raila in three elections, that is 2013, 2017 and 2022; perhaps you can think what you did was wrong, but I can assure you, Hon Kalonzo, you will not go without a reward.”
