Opposition leader Raila Odinga.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga has declined to be drawn into a discussion on a constitutional amendment to appoint him Prime Minister, even as his loss in the race for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship raised the prospects of his return to active local politics.
Some quarters argue that Mr Odinga’s return to the local political scene could pose a major threat to key players in President William Ruto’s administration as he is likely to want to wield influence if he were to continue his association with the Head of State.
President Ruto has openly indicated his desire to have Mr Odinga on his side for his 2027 re-election bid, a scenario that is likely to trigger major realignments and upset the power balance as currently constituted.
With Mt Kenya — a key plank in Dr Ruto’s 2022 election — appearing to be drifting away following the impeachment of Mr Rigathi Gachagua and his removal from office as Deputy President last year, Mr Odinga would likely play a key role in securing Dr Ruto a second term should he agree to rally his bastions of Nyanza, Coast and Western to back him for a second term.
With the presidency likely to be out of the equation for his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Mr Odinga could negotiate for the remaining top positions, including the Deputy President’s and Prime Cabinet Secretary’s.
Some of Dr Ruto’s allies have since started discussions on amending the Constitution to create the PM’s post for Mr Odinga.
But Mr Odinga’s spokesperson Mr Dennis Onyango told Nation that the former premier has not discussed with anyone his next political move as he is having a break after a year-long AUC campaign. He also said that Mr Odinga is out of the country after the Addis Ababa contest.
President William Ruto (left) and Raila Odinga at the African Union Commission headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15, 2025.
“Raila is out of the country for a brief rest following the end of a very gruelling continental campaign. For the last one year, his focus was on the AUC. He hasn't discussed his next steps, least of all trying to occupy a non-existent position of Prime Minister,” said Mr Onyango.
“He is now focused on having a break and catching breath.”
In the run-up to the 2022 poll, Kenya Kwanza Alliance signed a pact with the now-dissolved Amani National Congress (ANC) for Mr Musalia Mudavadi to take up the Prime Cabinet Secretary’s slot. However, the position is yet to be anchored in the Constitution as promised during the campaigns.
Belgut MP Nelson Koech, a close ally of President Ruto, suggested the implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) report to create the PM’s position. The report by a team that was fronted by President Ruto and Mr Odinga had also recommended the creation of the post of the Official Opposition Leader.
"We could even do better by having the office of the Prime Minister. I'm just having a wild thought on what could happen," Mr Koech said while appearing on Citizen TV.
UDA Organising Secretary Vincent Kawaya, who is also the Mwala MP, said Mr Odinga is likely to play a key role going into the 2027 elections. He said there was a likelihood of ODM working together with UDA.
“I don’t see any reason why Raila would not support Ruto in 2027. I foresee a formation between UDA and ODM with Raila playing a key role in Ruto’s re-election,” said Mr Kawaya.
“Ruto gave his all in the AUC campaigns. Based on this, it would be unlikely for Raila to break the relationship,” he said.
ODM Deputy Party Leader and Mombasa Governor Abdullswamad Nassir told Nation that the party has not had any discussions about Mr Odinga taking up any role in Dr Ruto’s administration. But he did not rule out the possibility of him joining Kenya Kwanza.
“That matter has not been discussed anywhere. We believe there are so many things our party leader can do. Again, creating such a position would involve so many things, including changing the Constitution,” said Mr Nassir, adding, “it is something we may consider discussing as a party”.
Mr Odinga has personally acknowledged that the President did everything possible for his AUC chairmanship bid, noting that his loss was because of other factors that came up.
“I want to say that President Ruto did everything possible to ensure I won. He gave me all the logistical support that I needed during the campaigns,” Mr Odinga said during a dinner with the Kenyan delegation in Addis Ababa on Saturday.
Political analyst Peter Kagwanja said that Mr Odinga is likely to push for more influence in Dr Ruto’s administration.
Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Musalia Mudavadi during an interview at his office at Kenya Railways Headquarters Nairobi, Nairobi on January 18, 2025.
He said some of the realignments would occasion major casualties, and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Mr Mudavadi could be affected.
“He is going to go for the co-presidency. Raila is going to push for a government that is genuinely a Raila–Ruto government. Which means an increase in the Cabinet, and him being elevated possibly to a DP or Prime Minister. Raila is not going to be a rebel, he is not going to rebel against William Ruto,” said Prof Kagwanja.
Mr Kevin Lunani, who was ANC national chairman before its dissolution told Nation that Mr Mudavadi would not engage in a supremacy battle over a position.
“I can tell you that Musalia is not hungry for power. He is more concerned about the economy than who takes what positions. He is patient enough and will support Ruto in 2027,” said Mr Lunani, who is now UDA vice chairperson.
Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula said Dr Ruto is interested in an individual who can give him numbers in Parliament and in terms of support base.
He said Mr Odinga would likely play a key role compared to both Prof Kindiki and Mr Mudavadi, should he agree to work with Kenya Kwanza administration.
“Politics is a game of numbers. Automatically Raila would play a higher role compared to any other politician because of the numbers he controls. Raila controls Western. Kakamega County has 12 MPs of which nine are from ODM. It is the same thing in Busia, where he controls all the constituencies, except Teso South,” said Mr Savula.
Although Mr Odinga has not openly dismissed the possibility of teaming up with Dr Ruto, his elder brother Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga and ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna have stated that ODM would produce a presidential candidate.
“The nature of our politics sometimes requires that we enter into strategic arrangements with like-minded political parties. The political parties whose ideology bears similarity with ODM’s pro-people policies are known. Those should be the ones we seek to work with, not those that oppress the people,” Mr Sifuna said.
There are signs of Dr Ruto endearing himself to Mr Odinga’s bastions after the formation of a broad-based government. He has sustained his political incursions in Western and Nyanza regions.
He picked Prof Kindiki to replace Mr Gachagua, with hopes that the former Interior Cabinet Secretary would help him rally the vote-rich region behind Kenya Kwanza.
Observers reckon that should President Ruto lose the Mt Kenya voting bloc, he would largely be depending on Mr Odinga’s vote basket. This, they stated, would likely influence the ticket, adding that the many trips to the western side of the country could also be intended to shop for the next running mate. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has been mentioned as a potential pick.
Following the impeachment of Mr Gachagua and the subsequent perceived hostility against the administration in Mt Kenya, Dr Ruto appears to have embarked on a strategic campaign to take the Nyanza and Western Kenya voting bloc, while he has significantly reduced his visits to Mt Kenya.
“The Mountain is lost. Ruto knows the Mountain has a mind of its own and will solidly reject him in 2027. For him, it is time to count his losses and move on. This does not bode well for Prof Kindiki who will pay dearly for what will be seen as being a tool used by Ruto to divide and weaken the Mountain's block vote,” said US-based university lecturer and political analyst, Prof David Monda.
Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda said: "ODM will support President Ruto for a second term. The coalition agreement may include the possibility of having a DP from ODM.”
At the same time, Members of Parliament have castigated Kenyans who celebrated the defeat of Mr Odinga in the AUC election, saying they are unpatriotic.
In an extraordinary motion in the National Assembly tabled by Leader of Majority Kimani Ichung’wah, the MPs said it was not Mr Odinga who was on the ballot, but Kenya as a country.
Deputy Speaker Gladys Boss said it’s the envy of any country to hold such a position.
“Raila Odinga was not the candidate, Kenya was the candidate. So any Kenyan who is happy that he lost is unpatriotic. Any person who makes derogatory remarks is doing a disservice not to Raila Odinga but to Kenya,” she said.
Minority Leader Junet Mohamed said as ODM party they had learnt their lesson and would not forget how some people reacted to the outcome.
Nyando MP Jared Okelo warned that those who think Mr Odinga’s defeat signals a done deal for political relations with President Ruto are in for a shock.
“When Raila jets back to join his brother Ruto, you will be shocked. Raila will give us direction on where to go as a community and as a country,” Mr Okelo said.
Minority Whip Millie Odhiambo described those celebrating Mr Odinga’s loss as busybodies who should find something to do in life. Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma said if anyone thinks Mr Odinga’s defeat will lead to the collapse of the broad-based government, they should be prepared for a “tighter” working relationship.
Additional reporting by Samwel Owino
