How Kalonzo Musyoka’s return to Azimio flips numbers in Raila Odinga’s favour
Azimio flag bearer Raila Odinga (right), Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka (second left), Narc leader Charity Ngilu and Muungano’s Kivutha Kibwana at a rally in Mukuru Kwa Njenga, Nairobi, on Thursday.
The return of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka to Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition and subsequent possible delivery of Ukambani 1.6 million voting bloc has complicated Deputy President William Ruto’s arithmetic to State House.
By retaining Mr Musyoka within the coalition and having Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua as his running mate, Azimio presidential hopeful Raila Odinga has succeeded to retain most of his 2013 and 2017 support base and at the same time tapped support from Mt Kenya. He may, however, take a hit in Western due to the exit of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford-K’s Moses Wetang’ula.
Mr Musyoka has in the past polls easily delivered in excess of 83 per cent of votes cast in the three Ukambani counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui to Mr Odinga, according to the 2013 and 2017 general elections data.
The decision by the former Vice President to back Mr Odinga’s fifth stab at the presidency also implies that the August 9 polls could be won in the first round as there will be no third force in the succession race to occasion a run-off in the absence of an outright 50 per cent plus one vote win.
Some political analysts and DP Ruto allies, however, argue that Mr Musyoka may not be as influential as he was in the previous polls as he is not on the presidential ticket. Mr Musyoka was Mr Odinga’s running mate in the last two polls. They add that Mr Musyoka has lost some of his supporters over his flip-flopping nature. Mr Odinga’s critics also argue that he has lost some of his traditional support base to Dr Ruto.
But going by the past voting patterns, DP Ruto requires an overwhelming support from both Rift Valley and Mt Kenya to secure a win just like Jubilee did in 2013 and 2017 polls.
Scrutiny of the two previous polls show a huge voter turnout in the two regions at an average of over 90 per cent. This implies that any splitting of the bloc or voter apathy in either of the two regions could be costly to Dr Ruto’s bid.
Recent opinion polls have suggested that Mr Odinga was likely to get some votes from Mt Kenya, a region that has always turned to the ballot to vote against him.
A Nation Media Group opinion poll conducted by Infotrak Research & Consulting on May 8 and 9 handed the former Prime Minister a 22 per cent popularity rating in a region with a total of 5.8 million registered voters.
Dr Ruto polled 60 per cent in the survey. Other popularity surveys have also suggested that the former premier has made some substantial grounds. The 22 per cent rating translates into about 1.2 million registered voters.
His decision to settle on Ms Karua has also generated buzz in the region and from women across the country. There is, however, no scientific proof that this would translate into actual votes.
In 2013, President Uhuru Kenyatta crossed the 50 per mark after he garnered 6.1 against Mr Odinga’s 5.3 million.
In the disputed and eventually annulled election of 2017, Mr Kenyatta polled 54.17 per cent to Mr Odinga’s 44.94, with less than one per cent of the vote shared by the rest. The DP has Mt Kenya and Rift Valley in his corner, while Mr Odinga has his traditional Nyanza, Western and Coast bases, if recent opinions are anything to go by.
Should the 2013 and 2017 voting patterns be repeated, latest voter registration figures by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) show that Mr Odinga’s perceived strongholds in 18 counties command 8,450,380 votes, while DP Ruto’s perceived bastions in 16 counties collectively have 8,040,885 votes.
Dr Ruto has since fell out with President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is now backing Mr Odinga.
But Ruto side argues that they have since made substantial forays in new grounds. They list Western and Coast as some of the regions they have a better chance in the coming polls compared to how they performed in the last two elections. The new numbers, they say, will counter any new grounds Mr Odinga has made in the run-up to the August 9 polls.
Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula have thrown their weight behind DP Ruto. The two backed Raila in the last poll. Although in 2013 Mr Mudavadi contested the presidency, the region largely remained with Mr Odinga. Dr Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance has since offered the region the chief minister post on top of Cabinet slots and capital projects to flip it in his favour.
“We have always done our projections with Kalonzo being in Azimio. The figures even with him in Azimio show we are ahead of them by about eight per cent,” says Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei.
“Kalonzo flip-flopping has made him lose influence in his Ukambani backyard. Tinga (Mr Odinga) has also lost some of his traditional backyards. People who supported him are now in Kenya Kwanza campaigning for Ruto. Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, Governor Amason Kingi, among others, are no longer with him.”
But political analyst Macharia Munene says Kalonzo move is a major boost to Mr Odinga. The university don also argues that Mr Musyoka has lost credibility for his flip-flipping nature and may not deliver the entire Ukambani region to Azimio. He says the fact that he is not jointly on the presidential ticket could work against his influence.
“He is a candidate for chief minister which does not exist in law,” says Prof Munene.
“It is wishful thinking to say there would be no run-off. There are those minor candidates that you can’t tell the number of votes they will take. Remember some unknown fella (Mohammed Abduba) Dida outperformed well known people. In general, possibility of a run-off is not very high, but you cannot rule it out.”
Governance expert Javas Bigambo says DP Ruto’s strategists have to work out a new formula of winning the polls. He holds that Mr Odinga has an edge over Dr Ruto with the new development. “The decision consolidates Raila’s vote basket, which, especially in Ukambani, would have ordinarily been scattered if Kalonzo went separately or joined Ruto,” said Mr Bigambo.
Tifa research analyst Tom Wolf says Kalonzo is a national leader and stands to deliver beyond the three Ukambani counties. “He would have had more influence in Ukambani if he was the running mate. He is a national leader who has influence outside the lower eastern region,” he said.
