Grand plans as aspirants eye State House, but how viable, ask experts?

Populist policies have dominated campaigns as hopefuls jostle to get ahead of the pack in the race to succeed President Kenyatta.

However, economists doubt the sustainability of the goodies promised as presidential aspirants target huge constituencies like the youth, women, the poor and small business operators.

Two pledges have stood out: Deputy President William Ruto’s Sh100 billion annual kitty for jua kali businesses and ODM leader Raila Odinga’s Sh144 billion-a-year cash for the poor.

These have stoked the most controversy though the campaigns are being framed around 10 issues.

Social welfare

The state of Kenya’s economy, public debt, corruption, social welfare, universal healthcare and education are some of the issues featuring in campaigns.

With the damage the Covid-19 pandemic has had on businesses and households, the status of the economy has become a key talking point.

Arguing that the economic models Kenya pursued over the years failed, the DP has sought to market his bottom-up approach “that is anchored on empowering small businesses”.

“Bottom-up promotes investment and financial instruments targeting the unemployed, ‘hustler’ enterprises and farmer groups,” the DP says, adding that the approach will have more benefits than the trickle-down model “which enriches cartels”.

Mr Tony Watima, an economist, says bottom-up is a good buzzword but amorphous.

“We need details of what it is and how it will be implemented,” Mr Watima said, adding that the Sh100 billion plan could face the same challenges that bedevilled the Youth, Women and Uwezo Funds.

“How will he raise the money? Administrative costs and corruption have taken the bigger share of such programmes.”

Prof Caxton Muune, another economist, says the bottom-up model is commendable, but challenges promoters to explain its “viability, practicability, adaptability and compatibility”.

“Pumping more money will neither economically empower the grassroots communities nor socially narrow down the divide between the privileged corporate citizens and the distressed communities,” the don said.

Mr Odinga is talking of transforming rural economies and the “Buy-Kenya, build-Kenya” plan.

“Transforming Kenya from a poor to a prosperous country will require a deliberate focus on turning around the fortunes of rural Kenya,” Mr Odinga said.

Critics want to know how Mr Odinga will mobilise Sh144 billion for the programme targeting the poor, given the runaway debt and spiralling public wage bill.

Mr Ken Gichinga says the plans politicians are pledging don’t meet the standards of an economic model. The economist argues that parties have invested more in political strategy.

A proper economic model, he says, should show how one would use factors of production — land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship — details that are missing in the aspirants’ public proposals.

“Bottom-up does not provide a detailed format on how it plans to exploit the factors of production,” Mr Gichinga said.

He, however, admits that it has facilitated public discourse.

On stipends to the poor, Mr Watima said: “The civil society has been experimenting on this basic income approach and the main concern has been sustainability. Providing basic income is unsustainable and doesn’t catalyse economic development.”

He says the problem with the Buy-Kenya, build-Kenya policy is that local products are expensive.

While dismissing the approach by the DP and Mr Odinga, Amani National Congress leader, Musalia Mudavadi, says the country cannot be built on tokenism.

He pledges to emphasise job creation, war on corruption and public debt reduction measures.

“While pursuit of long-term strategic goals is critical for sustainable development, the immediate well-being of Kenyans is paramount before the prosperity envisioned under Uchumi Bora kwa Wote na Pesa Mfukoni (good economy and money for all) policy,” he says.

The national debt is now beyond the Sh9 trillion ceiling provided for in Kenyan law and politicians are offering repayment options.

The debt problem

The Uhuru Kenyatta government went for short-term loans with high servicing burden, meaning, most of the revenue goes into servicing the debt.

Economists say repayment would reach a crisis point in fiscal 2023/4 , leading to default.

“The next government must deal with the debt problem,” Mr Watima said, but added that there has not been any tangible proposals from the hopefuls.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka says his administration would settle Kenya’s debts in two years.

According to Mr Musyoka, the country can pay off its debts by curbing corruption, sealing wastage and exploring natural wealth, by emphasising “our copper and iron-filled hills”

[email protected]