From governor to Mr President: The 2022 kingmakers

With deep regional networks established over 10 years, second-term governors are strong running mate candidates for top presidential contenders. Indeed, some of the county chiefs could front their own bids for high office. 

The expected exit of President Kenyatta in 2022 has opened up the political landscape as leaders who have been running mates since 2007 — Mr Musalia Mudavadi, Deputy President William Ruto and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka — are all in the race to succeed him.

Make a fifth stab

With Mr Raila Odinga looking set to make a fifth stab at the presidency, campaign teams are searching for running mates, and given that political influence is a key factor, the pool of second-term governors barred from seeking re-election offers rich pickings.

Council of Governors chairman Wycliffe Oparanya — a second-term Kakamega governor — termed the group a “force to reckon with” and revealed that talks of the “possibility of a third force” has featured in their meetings. Their influence especially for the ones with a performance record and financial muscle would be considered a value addition to a presidential ticket.

Among the premium targets are Mr Oparanya and Mr Hassan Joho (Mombasa) who played sterling roles in Mr Odinga’s presidential campaigns in 2013 and 2017.

Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua and his Makueni counterpart Kivutha Kibwana were insiders in President Kibaki’s administration as government spokesman and presidential advisor on constitutional affairs, respectively.

Backed Uhuru

The two backed the Odinga-Kalonzo ticket in 2013, but Mr Mutua went against a regional wave in 2017 to back President Kenyatta’s re-election.

Both have since fallen out with Mr Musyoka and have declared that they will run for President in 2022.  Some argue that their presidential bids are strategies to strengthen their bargaining power but they insist their march to State House is unstoppable.

Having held their seats for little more than seven years now, the governors have built a critical grassroots network in their regions and their support will come in handy to presidential contenders seeking to get a first-round win.

For one to be declared President in the first round, he or she must get at least 50 per cent plus one vote, as well as at least 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 counties.

The 2022 election will be the first time two-term governors will not be defending their seats, and will be priming themselves for national roles.

“In devolved governance, sub-national systems are a good training ground for national leadership. As a governor, you are able to demonstrate to a national audience that you can replicate the good you did with the little money available to you in your county given a bigger platform,” Mr Oparanya told the Nation last week.

Plan their future

Confident that the second-term governors will have a big say in the country’s politics in 2022, the CoG boss said they had started discussions on how to plan their future with the first meeting having been held in Kilifi in January.

Talks have been rife on the possibility of a formidable third force comprising of the governors going against the two established political forces that currently dominate national politics.

“We discussed the possibility of a third force,” Mr Oparanya said. “These governors are people who will have been the chief executive officers of their counties for 10 years in 2022, and we do not want those experiences to go to waste.”

He said some of the other options open to the 22 county chiefs include national assignments like Cabinet secretaries, a run for Senate “to further protect the objects of devolution” as well as “remain in the counties as advisors both at the county and national levels.”

Apart from Dr Mutua and Prof Kibwana, Mr Joho, Murang’a’s Mwangi wa Iria, and Mr Amason Kingi of Kilifi are said to also harbour presidential ambitions, albeit with no formal overtures.

Kericho’s Paul Chepkwony and his Mandera counterpart Ali Roba yesterday declined to discuss their future in politics, instead saying that their focus was on implementing their mandates.

One thing at a time

“The job at hand is adequate and I’m concentrating on the pledges that I made. I love to do one thing at a time. That’s my nature,” Prof Chepkwony said.

Mr Roba, who said he backs President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, said: “It’s too early and pre-emptive to talk about 2022 when we are just midway in our terms. My priority and foremost agenda now is to the people of Mandera.”

Devolution expert Mutakha Kangu said the governors were a double-edged sword who could make or break a candidate’s presidential run.

“Like in any system, there are those that will be useful to a presidential campaign if they performed well in their two terms. The flipside is true. If their performance was below par, voters might refuse to vote for a candidate because of that,” he said.

More focus, Dr Kangu said, should be on performance to help reap even more from the seats once the two terms end. At seven, the Rift Valley has the highest number of governors who will exit the county executive seat in 2022.

Mr Alex Tolgos of Elgeyo Marakwet leads President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) process in the expansive Rift Valley and is close to Kanu’s Gideon Moi. Uasin Gishu’s Jackson Mandago, Samburu’s Moses Lenolkulal, and Kericho’s Prof Chepkwony, have all declared their support for DP Ruto’s 2022 bid. Narok’s Samwel Tunai, who was firmly behind the DP, is seen to have pulled back, pledging his loyalties to the BBI.

Mr Nanok also had a brief dalliance with Mr Ruto, but had for a long time had his heart with Mr Odinga’s ODM.

Trans Nzoia’s Patrick Khaemba, who is a Ford Kenya governor, sides with his party boss Moses Wetang’ula.

In Nyanza, governors Okoth Obado (Migori), Cyprian Awiti (Homa Bay), Cornel Rasanga (Siaya), James Ongwae (Kisii), and Nyamira’s John Nyagarama have kept their cards close to their chest—all under the huge shadow of the political supremacy of Mr Odinga who has fanatical support in the region.

Mr Sospeter Ojaamong, a close ally of Mr Odinga, from neighbouring Busia will also be exiting.

Kwale’s Salim Mvurya, together with Mr Joho and Mr Kingi, complete the list of county bosses in their second term at the Coast.

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