Gideon Moi: The prince waiting to be crowned or Trojan horse? 

The endorsement of Kanu chairman Gideon Moi as the presidential candidate is, for the Baringo senator, the coming full circle of the independence party and the Moi family.

In 2002, when Kanu last fielded a presidential candidate in Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi retired after a 24-year stranglehold of the country’s politics.

His last born, Gideon Kipsiele Towett Moi who turns 58 on October 22, took over the reins as Baringo Central MP.

Twenty years down the line, Senator Moi has announced his intention to contest the presidency.

He wants to succeed the man his father picked ahead of party favourites, triggering a haemorrhage that has seen Kanu – a colossus that bestrode the political scene for four decades– now a shadow of its former self.

For the Baringo senator, the 2022 presidential race could be more than a first stab at the top job.

It is a necessary attempt to regain the fortunes of Kanu and the Moi family.

“Kanu has come to announce and declare that 20 years of half time is over. Kanu is here to reclaim its position at the country’s top leadership. Kanu is back!” Senator Moi said at Bomas of Kenya, Nairobi, on Thursday.

Political analysts say the senator has some advantages in his bid for the presidency.

Gideon's presidential quest

With the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission estimating that political parties will need up to Sh17 billion for the 2022 campaigns, and Sh4.4 billion for a presidential candidate, money may not be a problem for the junior Moi.

Kanu too has structures, a machinery built over the last 60 years, and which might only need activation and mobilisation.

The senator has the apparent backing of the incumbent, an important asset, especially as Mr Kenyatta owes his political success to the Mois.

Political commentator, Herman Manyora, says Gideon Moi – the polo enthusiast who was handed a replica baton during his father’s burial last year, has a bright future.

Mr Manyora adds that the senator’s entry into the presidential contest is a scheme to prepare him for a greater role post-2022.

“Gideon Moi is a prince waiting to be crowned. Princes do not dirty their hands fighting for power. Power just comes. I do not think he wants to be president next year but he will be part of the team that will win the presidency. He is likely to support (Orange Democratic Movement – ODM – leader) Raila Odinga hoping himself to be president after that,” Mr Manyora said.

He added that the Baringo senator’s bid is likely to tame a resurgent Deputy President William Ruto in the Rift Valley.

Without saying it, Mr Moi has fashioned himself as the fallback and checkmate for the DP in the region for years. 

Under DP Ruto's grip

His image of not playing grudge politics even when provoked by Dr Ruto’s camp has endeared him to a significant number of people.

“Gideon has followers. His father was president for 24 years and there are people he can influence. He can bring 300,000-400,000 votes to the table,” the lecturer said.

According to Mr Manyora, the Rift Valley is likely to embrace Mr Moi if Dr Ruto encounters hurdles in the State House race.

But that is as far as the advantages for the senator go.

He will have a hard time convincing others to join him. The senator is struggling in the Rift Valley, a region that appears to be under the grip of Dr Ruto.

The DP recently won over former minister Musa Sirma, Ainabkoi MP William Chepkut, as well as a host of ward representatives in West Pokot and Baringo counties.

West Pokot Governor, John Lonyangapuo, appears to have drifted away from the senator. Mr Moi also lost former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto early this year when the Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) leader declared support for Dr Ruto’s presidential bid.

That was just months after losing Jubilee Deputy Secretary General and Cherang’any MP Joshua Kutuny.

Suffered defections

Aware of the role the Rift Valley is likely to play in the General Election, Mr Moi said he would trounce his opponents if the region throws its weight behind him.

“I am your son. You had enough confidence to vote for me as an MP for five years and senator for two terms. We should also walk together to State House,” he said. 

The senator remains isolated in the Rift Valley, with his camp having suffered defections. It has also been rejected by Myoot and Talai Council of Elders which have endorsed Dr Ruto for the presidency.

The senator is three years older than Dr Ruto but elders want him to wait for endorsement in 2032.

“Kenyans have faith in Ruto. That is why he campaigned alongside President Kenyatta and garnered many votes,” Myot Council chairman Benjamin Kitur said recently.

The only Rift Valley leaders still leaning towards Mr Moi are West Pokot Senator and Senate Majority Leader, Samuel Poghisio, MPs William Kamket (Tiaty), Gladwell Cheruiyot (Baringo Woman Representative), Silas Tiren (Moiben), Elgeyo Marakwet Governor Alex Tolgos and Kanu Secretary General Nick Salat.

Governance expert, Javas Bigambo, says though Mr Moi enjoys control of the party and has a financial muscle and political networks, he remains a greenhorn.

“He is not understood by ordinary Kenyans. The senator has never stood for anything notable or made choices on public interest issues in a manner that sets him apart, or endears him to the masses,” Mr Bigambo said. 

“Given how he battled to retain his seat in Baringo, he cannot cause Ruto steepness nights.”

Burdensome Kanu history

According to Mr Bigambo, the senator must repackage himself if Kanu hopes to regain some ground.

“Mr Moi has not personalised his candidacy and still carries the baggage of the burdensome Kanu history. He has not revitalised Kanu and remains inaccessible,” Mr Bigambo said. 

“He works on a lot of assumptions and has never made it clear why he wants to lead. He needs to spell out his vision and become a man of the people.”

Prof Ken Oluoch, who heads the Political Science Department at Moi University, said if Mr Odinga makes a fifth stab at presidency, Mr Moi’s candidacy would be to counter the DP in Rift Valley.

“He could put up a fight in the Rift Valley, but the region’s votes alone cannot propel him to the to job,” Prof Oluoch said.

Dr Ruto is on record mocking the Baringo senator’s presidential bid.

His visits to Baringo, and the Rift Valley in general, have carried one message: It was disrespectful for the senator not to support him when he backed his father.

Bomet Senator, Christopher Lang’at, says Mr Moi is working on a scheme to spoil for the DP.

“Gideon’s presidential quest is a joke. He is being used to divide our people. Rift Valley residents know the system is not even interested in Moi,” he said. 

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