Kenyan voters wait in line to cast their ballots on August 9, 2022.
An analysis of population projection over the next 20 years shows a surge in North Eastern, even as President William Ruto abolished strict vetting to ease issuance of national identification cards (IDs) to the region's residents.
The estimates suggest a population growth slump in the populous Mt Kenya and a surge in traditionally sparsely populated regions in a scenario that is likely to radically alter the voting power of various blocs.
However, in absolute numbers, Nairobi City, Kiambu, Nakuru, Narok and Kakamega counties are expected to record the highest increase, each adding between 600,000 and 1.2 million to their population.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) has projected Nairobi to have a population of 6,180,029 by 2045, from its 2025 estimates of 4,906,355, representing an increase of 1, 273,674 while Kiambu is projected to have 3,717,358, an increase of 963,219, in the same period. Nakuru is projected to have 3,371,874 people, an increase of 926,678 from the 2025 estimates of 2,445,196 while Kakamega will grow from 2,072,565 by an additional 581,541 to push its population to 2,654,106 by 2045.
North Eastern counties of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera are projected to have a significant surge compared to some of the Mt Kenya counties like Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, and Tharaka-Nithi.
According to the estimates, Garissa is set to have a growth of 382,737 to push its population to 1,353,654 by 2045 from the 2025 estimate of 970,917, Wajir will have a population of 1,407,640—up by 492,501—while Mandera is projected to move to 1,541,077, an increase of 533,870. Marsabit is estimated to have a growth of 254,344 to 793,445 while Isiolo is set to have additional 156,886 to push the population 487,378 by 2045.
In the same period, Nyeri is projected to have a growth of 149,529 to push its numbers to 1,002,143, Kirinyaga will grow by 96,012 to reach 759,772, Murang’a will have an additional 209,145 to push its population to 1,345,265 while Nyandarua will grow by 227,405 to hit 948,517.
Tharaka-Nithi, which is estimated to have a growth of 70,529, will hit 495,767 while in Embu, the expected growth of 104,741 will bring its total population to 766,431 by 2045.
Between 2025 and 2045, Samburu’s population is projected to nearly double from 366,958 to 588,833.
The estimated population growth is set to have a bearing even in the 2027 General Election. According to the projection, Garissa would have an increment of 105,009 in the next five years, Wajir (122,688), Mandera (132,572), Marsabit (64,974) and Isiolo (38,462). In the same period, Nyeri is estimated to have population growth of 41,964, Embu (30,442), Tharaka-Nithi (20,299), Nyandarua (62,242), Kirinyaga (26,447) and Murang’a (57,840).
The twist in the “tyranny of numbers” tale in North Eastern became a talking point during President Ruto’s week-long working tour of the region. Talk of alleged population suppression for political reasons dominated, and the President appeared to correct some of the “anomalies” with an eye on his 2027 re-election bid.
Talk of the alleged political manipulation gained traction after the High Court last week cancelled the 2019 Census results for Garissa, Mandera and Wajir, citing significant irregularities.
On Tuesday, President William Ruto declared that issuance of IDs in the region would no longer require vetting.
Leaders from the region have previously complained about the vetting, which they claimed was a deliberate scheme to deny some locals IDs, and lock them from participating in the elections.
“I want to assure the people that the discrimination witnessed in the region for the last 60 years will come to an end. When a child from Mandera, Wajir or Garissa applies for an ID and is asked so many questions, this must stop forthwith,” said the President. “If it is about vetting, let all children of Kenya be vetted equally without any discrimination. We want the people of Northern Kenya to feel equal to the rest of the country.”
Environment Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale—who was with the President during the tour— told the Nation that the region’s votes would be critical in the next election once the irregularities are corrected.
“If you look at the number of registered voters in the region, they have been significantly going up in the previous elections. And with the urban migration, our people are all over the country,” he said.
He accused previous regimes of deliberately suppressing the region’s population for political reasons and denying them national resources.
Suppressing our population
“Those people were anti-devolution. So when former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, President William Ruto and other progressive forces managed to push through devolution, they hatched another scheme of suppressing our population,” said Mr Duale. “They then decided that the formula for sharing resources be pegged on population. Somebody had deliberate plans to deny certain regions of our country resources.”
Data by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) shows a significant increase in the number of registered voters in the last five years. Its 2017 voters’ roll indicated that Garissa had 163,350 registered voters, Wajir (162,902), Mandera (175,642), Marsabit (141,708) and Isiolo (75,338). In the 2022’ roll, Garissa had 201,473, Wajir (207,758), Mandera (217,030), Marsabit (166,912) and Isiolo (89,504).
State operatives have been in a frenzy suggesting that the region will likely play a significant role in the 2027 presidential race.
Head of Creative Economy and Special Projects in the Executive Office of the President, Dennis Itumbi, said the region has potential of adding the highest number of new voters for the next contest. He juxtaposed the numbers with those in Mt Kenya, saying the region has little leg room for registering new voters, since a large percentage are already registered voters.
“Random fact: Mandera population 983,000, Nyeri 844,000, Embu 608, 000. That is post census suppression. Fertility rate? Mandera 7.7 kids per woman, Nyeri 3.1, Kirinyaga 2.8, Nyandarua 3.6, Embu 3.1,” he posted on his X account.
Similar remarks were made by political analyst Mutahi Ng’unyi.
“The 2027 election will be determined by the Somali, Mulembe Nations. I have nothing against Kikuyu privilege. But the party is over,” he wrote on X
The populous Mt Kenya region—a key plank in Dr Ruto’s 2022 election —appears to be drifting away, forcing the President to start making inroads in other regions.
Following the impeachment of Mr Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President, and the subsequent perceived political hostility against the administration in Mt Kenya, Dr Ruto appears to have embarked on a campaign to take other regions, including North Eastern and Mr Raila Odinga’s Nyanza and Western.
While he has significantly reduced his visits to Mt Kenya, the President has more than doubled his trips to the Western part of the country and shows no signs of slowing down. He also made an unprecedented week-long tour of North Eastern, where he has been doling development projects. The region has also significantly benefited in major appointments, especially in the security sector.
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, a close ally of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, said he does not want to read mischief in the court ruling. He, however, noted that there would be a high level of vigilance in the next election to avert any plans to manipulate the outcome.
Canvassed in the courts
“Remember that this is not a matter that was filed yesterday. It has been canvassed in the courts for a fairly long time. I do not want to read schemes of vote manipulation in everything even where people are genuinely seeking justice,” said Mr Wambua. “The order to conduct a fresh and objective census exercise in the region is not a favour from the President or his government. It is a decision of the court to deliver justice. Vigilance against vote rigging in the next elections will be at a high level,” he said.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, alias Mejja Donk, an ally of Mr Gachagua, said that assisting the people to acquire IDs does not mean that they would vote for his re-election. He said that just like other Kenyans, the Somali also suffer Kenya Kwanza’s high taxation and the high cost of living.
