Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (left) and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
In a twist of fate, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga could emerge as the kingmakers in the 2027 presidential election.
Analysts say the scenario that is shaping up is one in which Mr Odinga might back President William Ruto’s re-election while Mr Gachagua might support former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka.
"It is a credible scenario since at 80 years now and fresh from the African Union Commission (AUC) flop, the prospects for Mr Odinga are narrowing considerably," says political analyst Prof Macharia Munene.
Prof Munene adds that "going by the recent political developments, President Ruto and Mr Odinga are coming out as close allies while Mr Gachagua and Mr Kalonzo appear to be growing into 2027 bedmates.”
With age catching up with Mr Odinga- he will be 83 in 2027- Mr Gachagua who will be 62 also finds himself barred from running unless his impeachment is quashed by the court.
Pundits foresee Mr Odinga opposing his 2013 running mate, Mr Musyoka, and Mr Gachagua opposing his former boss President Ruto.
"The picture that is emerging is that of Mr Musyoka taking on President Ruto powered by Mr Gachagua and Mr Odinga supporting the President in a battle of allies turned foes," says political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja.
Mr Gachagua has since announced that he is working hard to form a political alliance that will ensure President Ruto does not win a second term in 2027.
He has urged his supporters in Mt Kenya to sever ties with President Ruto and quit the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party to join the new party that he has promised to unveil in May. Mr Gachagua has hinted at supporting Mr Musyoka.
"I am happy that Mr Musyoka and his people have become part of us,” the former deputy president said recently.
Six million votes
By burying the hatchet with Mr Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 elections, Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua, Mr Gachagua has declared the opposition alliance is shaping up.
"Let me go to my region and push for about eight million votes as Musyoka pushes for about four million votes. This is all about numbers and together with other allies, we will beat President Ruto by over six million votes," Mr Gachagua said recently.
The former deputy president has said he will reach out to former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, DAP-Kenya boss Mr Eugene Wamalwa, Trans Nzoia Governor Mr George Natembeya and Busia Senator Mr Okiya Omtatah.
On the other hand, President Ruto's broad-based government appears to be targeting to win over Mr Odinga.
Political commentator Prof Harman Manyora opines that "President Ruto's nightmare will only gain reprieve if Mr Odinga decides to support him, or, Mt Kenya gets back to his fold".
"With a Mt Kenya region that appears resolute to sever ties with the President as urged by Mr Gachagua, the only hope is Mr Odinga transferring his voting block to Dr Ruto's re-election agenda," Prof Manyora argues.
Prof Manyora believes "if there is a decision the President appears to have mooted as a joke that went overboard, it was Gachagua impeachment".
"I believe that President Ruto’s initial agenda was to scare Gachagua but was unable to tame the threat that went wild all the way to impeachment," he suggests.
Mumias East MP Mr Peter Salysia told Nation. Africa that "should Mr Odinga decide to support Ruto and Mr Gachagua support a different candidate, then the battle will be one to behold".
Mr Salysia said: "We are anticipating a situation where with Mr Odinga out of the African Union Commission (AUC) contest, he will come back and try to gain some space in local politics".
He added that "what we anticipate is Mr Odinga negotiating for a bigger stake, he might even demand 50 percent of government".
"With the recent court ruling that Mr Odinga commands the majority side in the National Assembly as well as President Ruto's desperation for numbers to stabilise his government, we might witness a Cabinet reshuffle that hands Mr Odinga the deputy presidency," Mr Salysia claimed.
Makueni Senator Mr Dan Maanzo told Nation.Africa that Mr Gachagua appears to have got control of his 2027 script while President Ruto and Mr Odinga will be engaged in a vicious backroom tussle as they negotiate on how they will relate as government partners.
"President Ruto is desperate for numbers to rule. Mr Odinga is a known vicious negotiator and rabble-rouser when he appears not to be getting what he wants," Mr Maanzo said.
He added that "it will be farfetched to imagine President Ruto backing from seeking re-election to support Mr Odinga's candidacy".
To that end, Mr Maanzo said, "it is either Mr Odinga supports President Ruto's reelection or, just like Gachagua, sever ties with him and contest".
In such an eventuality, Mr Maanzo argued Mr Odinga will realise that without Mr Musyoka's support, he is a shell and with other candidates eating into his traditional voting basket, his political clout would be weakened further.
Mr Calvine Odhiambo of the Bunge la Mwananchi said "2027 appears to be a battle between Mr Gachagua and Mr Odinga as kingmakers or even as presidential candidates".
He said that "should the courts clear Gachagua to vie and Mr Odinga decides to also do so, then President Ruto might end up being the worst performing incumbent".
But Mr Odhiambo reckoned that with Mr Odinga’s win gravely compromised, he might end up supporting President Ruto's reelection.
