Djibouti's Foreign Minister Mahmoud Youssouf.
What should be expected of Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, the new chairperson of the African Union Commission? He first has to rise above the campaigns, ensuring that his two competitors and their countries do not feel insecure.
A key factor is the definition of the role of the AUC Chairperson. The holder of the coveted position serves as the chief executive and accounting officer, legal representative, and programmes coordinator, among other roles.
This apex administrative job is powerful because the holder is at the centre of decision-making over widespread continental issues. Yet, the new chairperson will not sit pretty. From day one, he will be inundated with an overflow of old and new African problems. Almost everything from the AU headquarters to various issues in the rest of the continent is in crisis mode.
Djibouti's Foreign Minister Mahmoud Youssouf.
A report presented to the AU heads of state in 2024 provides glimpses into fundamental institutional problems. Presented by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, it lists poor prioritisation of issues, a role clash between the rotational African Union Chairperson – filled annually by a head of state – and the AUC chairperson, and poor coordination between the continental body and regional economic communities.
It speaks of many unfinished businesses — ranging from poor implementation of decisions to stalled reforms of AU organs and institutions such as the Pan-African Parliament and the African Court of Justice. Mention of “proper accountability”, “misconduct” and “abuse of office” give credence to many scholarly and journalistic works that have unearthed integrity issues.
As the chief executive, the newly minted chairperson would have to assume a reformist stance: diligent management to mitigate lethargic and near-dysfunctional operations worsened by claims of nepotism and corrupt practices. As programmes coordinator, the chairperson must embrace an impartial diplomatic-negotiator stance. This will include ensuring the AU’s Agenda 2063, whose implementation is seen as off the rails gets back on track.
The chairperson has a full plate of issues: implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area, managing climate change problems, and harnessing a restive youth bulge. However, even before tackling economic development issues, the chairperson has to contend with the pressing issues of armed conflicts, electoral malpractices, and engaging with external powers.
African delegates during an African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) meeting in Kigali, Rwanda on March 21, 2018. Studies show the full implementation of the AfCFTA would increase intra-African trade by 52 percent or by $450 billion by 2035, according to the World Bank.
Armed conflicts
Despite the stated and noble goal of fostering unity, solidarity, and cooperation, the AU has at best achieved mixed results and at worst failed. Large swathes of the continent – the Great Lakes, the Horn of Africa, the Sahel – are either in full-blown wars or facing imminent conflict.
The new chairperson has to contend with several realities. African countries that have effected unconstitutional changes of government – a euphemism for military coups – have been undeterred by the AU’s decision to suspend them.
Just last month, the military-led countries of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), opting for a new bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States. The roots of their departure from the AU and ECOWAS are traced to long-drawn Islamic fundamentalist-inspired insurgences coupled with weak civilian governance.
Sudan, Gabon, Guinea, and Chad have also witnessed coups in recent years. This brings military junta-led nations in Africa to seven. While grappling with the scourge of unconstitutional changes of government, the chairperson has to keep an eye on contested elections. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Tunisia, and Comoros have witnessed elections considered undemocratic. In South Sudan, elections initially scheduled for December 2024 were postponed to 2026.
Smoke rises from a building next to a damaged car on a street in Khartoum, Sudan.
These electoral challenges are an indication of the general deterioration in democracy and human rights contrary to the AU’s African Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance was adopted in 2007. The chairperson would have to figure out how to force African leaders to adhere to democratic governance.
The chairperson has to manage several conflicts in the Horn of Africa region where jihadist fighters have proved difficult to defeat. In Somalia, the semblance of peace in recent years has witnessed periodic reversals with terrorist attacks by terrorist groups, particularly, the Islamic State-affiliated Al Shabaab. Into this mix is the matter of Somaliland's succession from Somalia, which has been on the cards for decades.
The same separatist impulse is at play in Western Sahara with the self-declared Sahrawi Democratic Arab Republic aiming for total independence from Morocco.
Even more significant as an immediate in-tray issue for the chairperson will be the resurgent armed conflicts in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan.
What came to be known as “Silencing the Guns by 2020” commenced in 2013. Five years after this move to make the violent conflict-free remains a dream.
A member of the security forces removes obstacles from a road, during a demonstration in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, January 28, 2025.
In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the chairperson would have to lead negotiations between Rwanda, accused of supporting a resurgent M23 rebel group, and the Congolese government, accusing Rwanda of territorial annexation. The recent conflagration has seen an escalation of differences between presidents Paul Kagame and Felix Tshisekedi.
The new chairman would perhaps undertake shuttle diplomacy between Kigali and Kinshasa without seeming to favour one over the other. The conflict has sucked in the regional blocs of the East African Community (EAC) where Rwanda belongs and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) of which the DRC is a member.
Respectively, the EAC is home to the Nairobi peace process while the SADC leads the Luanda peace process. Reconciling these eastern DRC peace initiatives will be a tough balancing act. With over 3000 people dead and a massive humanitarian crisis unfolding, the AUC chairperson would have a complex problem to solve.
In Sudan, the turbulence of yesteryears first spilled into a military takeover in 2021 before entering a civil war in April 2023. Estimates indicate over sixty thousand killed with no end in sight for a peaceful settlement of hostilities.
The chairperson will be hard put leading conflict resolution efforts pitting the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As with the Rwanda-DRC conflict, the chairperson would have to navigate complexities involving Sudan’s neighbours in the Horn as well as the Middle East powers that have taken sides in the war.
A member of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces paramilitaries mans a machine gun turret while on guard outside the offices of the anti-corruption prosecution in the capital Khartoum on June 16, 2019. PHOTO | YASUYOSHI CHIBA | AFP
For instance, Saudi Arabia supports the SAF while the United Arab Emirates supports the RSF. In 2024, the SAF, which sees itself as the legitimate representative of Sudan, suspended its membership in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) – the eastern and Horn Africa bloc – after the invitation of the RSF into negotiations.
Global issues
The overall issue for the chairperson on global issues can be divided into two. On the one hand, the AU’s failure to self-finance its programmes has led to a dependency on global powers such as China, the European Union, and the United States, among others. On the other hand, the AU's plan to engage with global powers collectively has been hampered by the proclivity for individual nations to deal directly with powerful nations.
A glimmer of hope is evident in the inclusion of the AU as a member of the G20. Still, the AU doesn’t have a coherent external engagement strategy. As the loss of funding from the new US administration shows, the chairperson will have to lead on mobilizing internal resources while prioritizing external partnerships centred on African priorities.
Dr Wekesa is Director, the African Centre for the Study of the United States, a fellow at the University of Southern California, and a visiting professor at Howard University: [email protected].
