Kenya's Raila Odinga makes his remarks during the launch of his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship candidate at State House, Nairobi on August 27, 2024.
The campaign team of Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship Raila Odinga is putting on a brave face after the 16-member bloc of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) threw its weight behind former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato.
Mr Odinga and Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf had for months been considered the leading contenders but the last-minute endorsement of Mr Randriamandrato could tilt the scales and complicate the vote.
The elections are scheduled for Saturday, February 15 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
“The Republics of Madagascar and Mauritius had, in the August 2024 Council, submitted a candidate each for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission, namely Mr Richard J. Randriamandrato and Mr Anil Kumarsingh Gayan, respectively. We have since learnt that Mauritius has withdrawn her candidature, leaving Madagascar as the only Member State from the SADC region to compete for the position,” the letter said.
It added: “I write to notify you, Honourable Minister, that Honourable Richard J. Randriamandrato, a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Madagascar, has been shortlisted as the only candidate from the SADC region for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission. In this regard, the Republic of Madagascar has written to the Secretariat formally seeking support of SADC Member States for its candidate…this letter, therefore, serves to encourage SADC Member States to support Mr Richard J.
Randriamandrato, a candidate from our region, for the position of the AUC Chairperson,” states a communique by Elias M. Magosi, Executive Secretary of SADC Secretariat.
Mr Odinga arrived in Addis on the evening of Wednesday, February 12 after concluding his campaign in Bujumbura, Burundi, where he engaged with President Evariste Ndayishimiye.
In his final push for victory, Mr Odinga, Kenya’s veteran politician, was on Wednesday night and Thursday engaged in high-stakes lobbying, meeting various Foreign Ministers on the sidelines of the 46th Ordinary Session of the AU Executive Council.
He is expected to meet various Heads of State and Government on Friday, February 14 ahead of Saturday’s 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the Heads of State and Government of the African Union.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, who is also the head of Mr Odinga’s campaign secretariat, said Thursday that they were confident of victory despite the SADC’s last-minute communication to its member states.
“The letter is not a directive nor endorsement by the SADC bloc of Madagascar’s candidate. Such an endorsement would only obtain if ratified by their Ministerial Council and Heads of States Meeting. As such, this letter only seeks to ‘encourage’ support rather than require it, furthermore, the timing of the letter coming barely four days to the elections appears an afterthought only to satisfy basic expectations from the membership block,” Dr Sing’oei told Nation Africa in an interview.
But some diplomats have argued that the SADC move has the potential to hurt Kenya’s candidacy.
Prof Gilbert Khadiagala, an International Relations and Diplomacy expert, said the southern Africa bloc’s last-minute letter could complicate matters for Mr Odinga if its members heed to the ‘encouragement’.
Last political fight?
For the Kenyan candidate, the race is a new frontier: He had never competed abroad. It has an impact on local politics, and yet his experience back at home may be the grit he needs.
At home, the former prime minister has made five unsuccessful attempts for the presidency; in 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022 elections.
At 80, this AUC could be his last political fight, even though he has insisted that he will still be available for other roles even if he loses the elections.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who also doubles as Kenya’s Foreign Minister, says they are looking forward to Mr Odinga becoming the AUC chairperson after Moussa Faki of Chad.
“He arrived on Wednesday evening after concluding his campaigns in Burundi and is now engaged in intense lobbying as a candidate, and we are also doing all we can to reach out to various leadership to get their votes,” Mr Mudavadi told Nation Africa Thursday.
Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Musalia Mudavadi during an interview at his office at Kenya Railways Headquarters Nairobi, Nairobi on January 18, 2025.
He said President William Ruto, who has also been engaged with several African leaders, is also working to ensure Mr Odinga bags the coveted regional post.
“Kenya has reached out to virtually all the countries on the continent. Raila (Mr Odinga), I think, has been to virtually all the capitals in the last few months. President Ruto has had extensive outreach with his peers and I have also been in touch several times with the various ministers,” said Mr Mudavadi.
Dr Sing’oei said Kenya is not taking any chances in the race.
“The leadership of the African Union at the very highest level is an opportunity which every country aspires to, because it represents a bestowal of trust and confidence on the part of other countries,” Dr Sing’oei said.
He argued that the election election gives a beater opportunity for East Africa to lead the commission: “The African Union has been led by persons from many regions. East Africa has not had a chance to lead the African Union itself. The last time we had was during the tenure of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) by Salim from Tanzania who served as the last Secretary General of OAU before it transitioned to AU.”.
Pan-Africanist
As Mr Odinga now faces Africa, he is banking on his experience and Pan-Africanism credentials to catapult him to victory.
Prof Makau Mutua, a member of his campaign secretariat and close aide, said the AUC chair post requires a Pan-Africanist – “a true champion of Africa.”
“That’s why Mr Odinga’s truly national outlook in Kenya is an essential early qualification for the job. How can one be a Pan-Africanist, if they aren’t a nationalist at home?” said the law professor.
Prof Mutua said Mr Odinga had the best opportunity to showcase his Pan-Africanist credentials to the world during the Mjadala Africa debate that pitted him against his opponents — Djibouti’s foreign minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato in December last year.
Mr Odinga’s success in the elections, he said, will “raise Kenya’s profile in Africa and internationally.”
“Kenya is already admired across the continent because of its open society, hardworking people, and enviable investment and tourist destinations. Mr Odinga’s triumph can only increase by multiple factors this rich profile. Kenya’s bigger fortunes are Africa’s win. He will be able to speak with stature and authority at global forums such as G7 and G20 (in reference to two political and economic forums for groupings of influential countries). His call for two UN Security Council veto-power seats for Africa is timely,” he said.
He added: “Kenya has for long been a leader in peace-keeping and peace-building operations on the continent. Mr Odinga’s election will cement the country’s reputation in peace operations and as an example of how Africa can foster local solutions to the continent’s problems without always looking outside.”
Safeguarding Africa’s sovereignty, Prof Mutua argued, is a task that will require a leader who can forge unity for inter-Africa trade and connectivity and to confront climate injustice, terrorism, political instability, and divisionism.
Winning résumé
But just how much in the tank is left for Mr Odinga to cross the finish line in the contest to win the African Union Commission Chairperson’s seat?
Officials in Addis say his own experience in politics could be the best tool in his box now.
Mr Mudavadi intimated to the Nation that the election for the Chairperson could be decided by a secret ballot, where the outright winner has to secure at least two-thirds of the voting members in the Assembly.
“São Tomé, which is one of the countries that had been on suspension, will now participate and vote in the AUC elections since they have sorted their issues which was only based on subscriptions. Now 49 countries will participate, raising the two-third threshold for outright victory to 33 up from 32,” said Mr Mudavadi.
Also Read: Why Raila victory is nigh at AUC
The election could go into subsequent rounds, if two-thirds is not achieved, and the winner would need a simple majority.
Sometimes, members can vote by acclamation also known as consensus, where they all agree on a candidate, but until yesterday, there were no signs of this process being applied, meaning Mr Odinga is likely to face his two opponents in a secret ballot vote.
Consensus may be less acrimonious but often tedious because a single no can stall the vote and could lead to a delay or postponement of elections.
If the vote is postponed, it could add several more months on the incumbent Moussa Faki Mahamat whose term is supposed to end in February.
Yet, depending on how it goes, each of the three candidates has a stake in it.
The Candidates
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti has been Foreign Minister since 2005, perhaps the longest-serving diplomat in that post on the continent.
Djibouti Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.
Former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato was once an influential diplomat in Francophone Africa, then his president fired him for voting against his capital’s desires at the UN General Assembly on the Russia-Ukraine war.
Madagascar's former Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato.
That his country backed him for the race was either interesting or a way of sending him away from local politics.
Recent interviews with a section of diplomats at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa also revealed various concerns regarding the election of AUC Deputy Chair vis-a vis-the Chair.
For instance, there were questions emerging that since the Deputy Chairperson’s post is reserved for a female candidate from North Africa, which is largely Islamic, it would only be fair to have balance to ensure fairness at the top AUC leadership. This could deny Mr Youssouf, Mr Odinga’s fiercest opponent, a chance.
Prof Khadiagala however, argues that this consideration is not going to matter.
“Do you mean is it possible to have two Muslims as Chair and Vice Chair? The answer is yes. There is no AU rule that prohibits that,” said Prof Khadiagala.
Mr Odinga has expressed confidence that he is on the path to victory, saying he is going to the race to win, but adds that should he lose, he will still have other contributions to make.
“We are not worried about losing. But we are not competing to lose, but to win,” Mr Odinga said during a recent interview.
Analysts argue that for Mr Odinga, the AUC chairmanship could be the ‘crowning jewel’ of a career defined by grit.
Mr Odinga has said that he is transitioning from Kenyan to continental politics in his bid to chair the AUC, signaling his possible exit from active local politics.
He has outlined 10-point priority areas that include; peace and security, infrastructure, economic transformation, harnessing Africa’s youth potential, gender equity and equality, agricultural transformation.
“We must return unity to the top of our priorities. Without unity in a fast-consolidating and changing world, Africa will continue to be marginalised, exploited and irrelevant,” he said.
Mr Odinga added: “Africa’s Agenda 2063 (a blueprint for the continent’s transformation) cannot be achieved unless the multilateral normative frameworks that speak to marginalisation, exclusion, and discrimination against women and girls are fully implemented.”
