Climate change compounds Africa’s enduring refugee problem

Just why does Africa’s refugee problem persist, though fewer countries today are in conflict than, say, 10 years ago? The answer may lie beyond the usual fighting on the battlefields.

And according to two new reports this week, the cause and effect of the refugee problem, which is a vicious cycle, is now more directly linked to climate change than a clash of parties in respective regions.

Ahead of the UN Climate Conference (Cop26) in the UK next month, a report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and partners this week revealed a further possibility of weather-induced displacements, resulting from melting glaciers, floods, drought and competition for scarce resources like water.

The report, State of Climate in Africa 2020, warns that mountains like Kenya, Kilimanjaro and Rwenzori may no longer have snow peaks by 2040, signalling warmer climates.

But the biggest warning was that sub-Saharan Africa will need at least $30 billion a year to set programmes for adaptation from irregular flooding, rainfall and other weather-induced disasters.

The African Union’s commissioner for rural economy and agriculture warned that the new revelations mean the continent’s economy could slow down and fewer people would be lifted from poverty ahead of the global deadline for 2030.

“In sub-Saharan Africa, climate change could further lower gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 3 percent by 2050,” she said in a statement on Tuesday.

“This presents a serious challenge for climate adaptation and resilience actions because not only are physical conditions getting worse, but also the number of people being affected is increasing.”

By 2030, the final year for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), an estimated 118 million Africans will have suffered the pain of drought, floods and extreme heat, which will mean they will be stuck in extreme poverty.

This situation will be compounded by the gaps in laws and practice on dealing with those displaced by climate-related disasters. This week, environmental activists and scholars argued that refugees resulting from climate-related disasters are outnumbering those from conflicts. Yet only those fleeing violence have been given protection, in law and in practice.

On Tuesday, the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF), a UK conservation charity group, published a study that shows that while climate change is a universal problem, there has been no uniform definition of refugees to include those running away from natural disasters.

The effect is that even considerations for those to be given refuge or programmes for adaptation have been discriminatory, addressing safety from conflict while leaving out the climate problem.

The report, No shelter from the storm: The urgent need to recognise and protect climate refugees, includes case studies from Africa’s biggest refugee sources.

It says existing international laws on refugees are unsuitable to resolve the conundrum of how to protect people fleeing floods, drought or storms, even though the usual response from these people is to migrate away from the problem zone.

“Irrespective of debates over terminology, climate refugees are victims of anthropogenic climate change, needing and deserving support and full protection of all enshrined human rights,” EJF argues.

“It is also a disturbing fact that the people and countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and benefited the least from carbon-fuelled economic growth are those suffering first and worst from the impacts of climate change.”

Ahead of Cop26, the group says countries must recommit to the Paris Agreement, an international treaty meant to lower emissions and halt or slow down the rate of warming in the world.

In Africa, 2021 has been called another ‘record’ year in displacement. At least 32 million people are displaced, either living in their countries (24 million) or have crossed the border. These are about three million more than last year. 

These people come mainly from 10 countries, which incidentally are also experiencing conflict. They include Somalia, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Mozambique and South Sudan, who account for 28 million, according to data from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

While these groups have been displaced by a combination of repression, terrorism, insurgency and general insecurity, only a few responses consider their flow as victims of climate change.

In Kenya, for instance, more than 270,000 refugees from Somalia have been hosted in various camps and urban areas. And officials label their cause of flight as terrorism or drought. Yet the definitions in law only refer to those who are fleeing ‘persecution’ and concentrate more on those displaced across international borders.

EJF suggests that countries prepare a separate legal document that defines climate refugees as “persons or groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive climate-related change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their homes either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad.”

Rather than amending existing refugee laws, providing a separate definition for climate refugees will boost responses for both persecuted people and those hurt by natural disasters and “guard the integrity of existing refugee protection mechanisms”.

The UN report this week, a product of studies by WMA, the African Union Commission, the Economic Commission for Africa and other UN agencies, did find that irregular climate will trigger forced migration and displacement. In fact, Africa’s refugees are already living in climate hotspots, which means they will be further exposed to “secondary displacement and preventing their opportunity to return”.

“Investment needs to be boosted in the areas of prevention, preparedness, disaster risk-reduction, policy engagement, legal guidance, data collection and analysis, as well as reduce the environmental impact of refugee settlements,” the report suggested.

“Policies on environmental migration and disaster displacement in Africa need to be not only centred on protection, and evidence-based, but also solution-oriented, so that they can be tailored to the actual needs and realities of the communities.”