Kenya's Raila Odinga makes his remarks during the launch of his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship candidate at State House, Nairobi on August 27, 2024.
In Addis Ababa
A few hours to the ballot, leading contenders for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairman are pulling out all the stops to secure the backing of influential leaders and regional blocs in a high-stakes diplomatic battle royale.
The election, which has drawn intense interest from across the continent, will see African leaders cast their votes to determine who among the three candidates — former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Djibouti’s Foreign minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato — becomes the next chairperson of the continental body.
With the stakes high, last-minute lobbying intensified behind the scenes, as contenders sought to sway ‘undecided’ leaders in their favour.
Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan will not participate in the elections.
Flurry of activities
President William Ruto arrived in Addis Ababa, the headquarters of the AU on Thursday evening, to a flurry of activities, while Mr Odinga was forced to cancel a dinner event he was expected to attend as his team embarked on a fresh round of lobbying following a last-minute communication by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretariat urging its 16 members to back Mr Randriamandrato.
Both South Africa, where Mr Odinga enjoys rapport with its President Cyril Ramaphosa, and Tanzania are members of SADC. However, Tanzania is also a member of the East African Community (EAC) that already pledged to back Mr Odinga.
“This letter, therefore, serves to encourage SADC Member States to support Mr Richard J. Randriamandrato, a candidate from our region, for the position of the AUC Chairperson,” stated a communique by Elias M. Magosi, Executive Secretary of SADC Secretariat.
But Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, who is also the head of Mr Odinga’s campaign secretariat, said that they were confident of victory despite the SADC’s last-minute communication to its member states.
Prof Gilbert Khadiagala, an international relations and diplomacy expert, says the move has the potential to hurt Kenya’s candidacy if members heed the directive.
At the heart of the contest is a battle over policy direction and continental leadership, with key issues such as economic integration, security and Africa’s position in global affairs dominating the agenda.
Different regions are pushing for their preferred candidates, leading to a fierce geopolitical contest that could reshape the balance of power within the AU.
Observers say the outcome will not only define the future of the commission, but also influence Africa’s collective voice on the international stage.
In Kenya, a victory for Mr Odinga would not only mark a historic moment for the country, but also cement his legacy as a statesman beyond national politics.
Having built strong diplomatic networks over the years, Mr Odinga’s campaign has positioned him as a champion for African unity, economic integration, and stronger continental governance.
However, the race remains tight, with regional blocs and power players making last-minute manoeuvres to tilt the outcome in their favour.
For Kenya, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi says Mr Odinga’s win “would be a major diplomatic triumph, elevating the country’s influence within the African Union and global forums.”
“It would give Nairobi a stronger voice in shaping policies on trade, security, and governance, reinforcing its position as a regional powerhouse,” says Mr Mudavadi, also Kenya’s Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary.
Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs CS Musalia Mudavadi, in an exclusive interview with the Nation, revealed the reason behind Kenya Kwanza’s decision to back Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s (inset) bid for AUC chair.
President Ruto’s administration has actively lobbied for Mr Odinga’s bid despite their political differences at home, signalling Kenya’s strategic interest in controlling AU’s top leadership.
President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
If successful, Mr Odinga’s tenure could open doors for more Kenyan professionals to land key AU positions and strengthen the country’s role in continental decision-making.
For Mr Odinga, the contest is not without challenges. With the AU elections often influenced by behind-the-scenes negotiations and geopolitical considerations, his chances hinge on securing broad-based support beyond East Africa.
While unveiling Mr Odinga at State House in August 2024, regional leaders led by President Ruto, Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, Samia Suluhu (Tanzania), Salva Kiir (South Sudan) and Burundi Prime Minister Gervais Ndirakobuca said he would be the EAC candidate.
Styling Mr Odinga as a visionary Pan-African leader, Dr Ruto described the former PM, his political nemesis-turned-friend, as “a bold and wise leader, a professional and technocrat as well as a towering statesman and veteran mobiliser for positive change.”
“I am confident that he will give his utmost and do all it takes to make Africa proud and powerful,” said Dr Ruto.
Uganda’s President Museveni described Mr Odinga as a Pan-Africanist who is not just a job seeker but qualified for the job.
“He is the one to lead us in that big battle for prosperity and is the candidate who is fit for this job,” President Museveni said.
A loss for Mr Odinga could indicate shifting alliances within the AU, potentially weakening Kenya’s diplomatic standing and forcing a reassessment of its regional strategies.
Transition
Domestically, Mr Odinga’s pursuit of the AU chairmanship marks a significant shift in his political career, as a win would likely signal his exit from Kenyan politics, closing the chapter on his decades-long quest for the presidency.
This could consequently reshape Kenya’s 2027 political landscape, where he has been a key opposition figure.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing'oei (left) AUC contender Raila Odinga and Prof Makau Mutua.
His departure would leave a leadership vacuum within his Azimio Coalition and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, triggering a search for a new opposition figure.
Conversely, a loss might reignite speculation about his political future at home, particularly whether he would make another attempt at the presidency.
Also Read: For Raila, night will be long but different
Mr Odinga said that he was transitioning from Kenyan to continental politics in his bid to chair the AUC, signaling his possible exit from active local politics.
“I will start working with the continent as soon as I'm elected...but that doesn’t mean Kenya ceases to exist,” Mr Odinga said last year.
Key moment
But regardless of the outcome, today’s election is pivotal for both Mr Odinga and Kenya.
If he emerges victorious, he will take on the daunting task of leading the AU Commission at a time when Africa faces pressing challenges, from economic recovery to security crises.
If he falls short, it will test Kenya’s diplomatic clout and redefine Mr Odinga’s role on the political stage. Either way, the results will shape not just his future, but also Kenya’s place in continental politics for years to come.
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and AU Commission Chairman Moussa Mahamat Faki at KICC, Nairobi, on November 27, 2018. Mr Odinga is bidding to succeed Faki as AU Commission boss.
Diplomatic manoeuvres have been in full swing, with candidates making high-profile pledges to address Africa’s most pressing challenges, including conflicts, trade barriers, and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Mr Odinga has, for instance, promised economic transformation, enhancing Intra-African trade, financial independence, gender equity, equality and youth empowerment, agricultural transformation, climate action, continental integration as well as peace and security.
Behind closed doors, intense negotiations and deal-making continue as nations weigh their interests before casting their decisive votes.
The Eastern region is contesting for the role of the chairperson, while the Northern region is contesting for the post of deputy chairperson, with various candidates for the chairperson’s seat seeking to broker last-minute deals to benefit from deputy candidates’ regional blocs and vice versa.
A general view of a plenary session at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on November 17, 2018.
Those vying for the deputy chairperson role include Salah Francis and Selma Malika (Algeria); Mohamed Fathi Ahmed and Hanan Morsy (Egypt); Najat Elhjjaji (Libya); and Latifa Akharbach (Morocco).
The voting will be closely watched, with expectations of a tight race that could lead to multiple rounds of voting if no candidate secures the required two-thirds majority in the first round.
Mr Mudavadi intimated that election for the chairperson could be decided by a secret ballot, where the outright winner has to secure at least two thirds of the voting members in the Assembly.
“São Tomé, which is one of the countries that had been on suspension, will now participate and vote in the AUC elections since they have sorted their issues which was only based on subscriptions. Now 49 countries will participate, raising the two-third threshold for outright victory to 33 up from 32,” said Mr Mudavadi.
Prof Makau Mutua, a member of Mr Odinga’s campaign secretariat and close aide, says the AUC chair post requires a Pan-Africanist and “a true champion of Africa.”
Pan-Africanist credentials
“That’s why Mr Odinga’s truly national outlook in Kenya is an essential early qualification for the job. How can one be a Pan-Africanist, if they aren’t a nationalist at home?” he said.
Prof Mutua says Mr Odinga had the best opportunity to showcase his Pan-Africanist credentials to the world during the Mjadala Africa debate in December last year.
Prof Makau Mutua; the outgoing chairperson of the Kenya Human Rights Commission board.
Mr Odinga’s success in the elections, he says, will be a great victory for Kenya as it will “raise the country’s profile in Africa and internationally.”
“Kenya has for long been a leader in peace-keeping and peace-building operations on the continent. Mr Odinga’s election will cement the country’s reputation in peace operations and as an example of how Africa can foster local solutions to the continent’s problems without always looking outside,” he says.
