More Covid cases during cold season, says study

In May, the Health ministry announced that Kenya was likely to have a fourth wave of Covid-19 in July.

This came as the country exhausted its Covid-19 vaccines, and confirmed the presence of the deadly Sars-Cov-2 India variant. Incidentally, the fourth wave is expected to hit Kenya during the cold season.

This combination of a fourth wave and cold weather might be lethal for the country if a new research is anything to go by.

According to the research from the Imperial College London and Utah State University, the transmission of Sars-Cov-2 varies seasonally, with low numbers getting reported during warmer temperatures and more people getting infected during cold seasons.

The study shows that over the last one year since the Covid-19 pandemic began, temperature, population density, population behaviour and lockdowns have been four of the most critical factors determining the spread of the coronavirus.

“The Sars-Cov-2 virus is able to spread more easily and faster in seasons of extreme cold, especially in the absence of proper, coordinated health policy interventions and population behavioural changes,” said Dr Will Pearse, who led the team of researchers in the study.

Flu viruses

The impact of weather and temperature implies that Covid-19 may have taken the same course as other flu viruses and coronaviruses which are known to be affected by environmental factors.

“High temperatures and low humidity are known to reduce the rate of transmission of respiratory droplets. This prevents or limits the spread of flu viruses,” said Dr Pearse in the research whose results were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.