Sh31bn Trump budget cuts could fuel 60, 000 new HIV infections in Kenya
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki speaks during the 1st health summit of the year 2025 held on February 17th , 2025 at his residence in Karen, Nairobi.
President Donald Trump’s executive order freezing donor support through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) leaves Kenya with an annual funding gap of about Sh30.9 billion in the health sector, the Health ministry has confirmed.
In a leadership consultative meeting held at the Deputy President’s residence on Monday, the Ministry of Health and the Council of Governors laid bare the financial impact of the unexpected withdrawal of aid money, breaking it down to different affected areas.
Their data shows that health products and technologies for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria will be the most affected with Kenya set to plunge into a funds gap of Sh12.26 billion annually.
Health Cabinet Secretary Dr Deborah Mulongo said that the ripple effect for funding reduction on the HIV programme, for instance, will result in a projection of about 60,000 new HIV infections by 2030.
The latest UNAIDS data shows that Kenya has the seventh-largest HIV burden in the world.
So far, there is progress in ensuring that 95 per cent of people living with HIV know their status, 95 per cent of them are on antiretroviral therapy and 95 per cent of those on drugs have achieved viral suppression, summarised as 95-95-95.
As of last year, this target had been surpassed to 96 per cent of people living with HIV knowing their status, 96 per cent of them on HIV drugs and 97 per cent achieving viral suppression, (96-98-97, in that order).
For tuberculosis, the Health Ministry data projects yearly deaths of about 23,000 people most of which will be from people living with HIV.
There is no specific projection on the impact of malaria, but CS Barasa told leaders on Monday that a combination of climate change and donor fund cuts may worsen the situation.
Their data also revealed a funding gap of about Sh5.8 billion which was supporting USAID-backed human resources for health annually. This has resulted in the immediate loss of about 11, 058 frontline staff.
In total more than 40,000 healthcare workers will be affected.
Other affected sectors by the aid-fund withdrawal include; family planning, nutrition, vaccines, blood and blood products, data systems, oxygen, laboratory, cervical cancer and Covid-19.
Health Cabinet Secretary Dr Deborah Mulongo says the ripple effect for funding reduction on the HIV programme will result in a projection of about 60,000 new HIV infections by 2030.
The existing Sh11.6 billion support on immunisation and vaccination programmes in the country by Gavi, the vaccine alliance and the US government are at also risk.
Ms Barasa on Monday recommended that there should be local mobilisation of about Sh2 Billion to complement the allocated Sh2.5 billion by Gavi, the vaccine alliance to avoid disruption of key immunisation programs.
On family planning, she said that the government has to set aside an additional Sh1.74 billion in funding in the budget allocation for the financial year 2025/2026.
For Nutrition, the ministry says that there needs to be an overhaul of funding and now recommends domestic allocation.
Apart from the USAID fund cuts, the government CS Barasa said that other multilateral funding is also at risk and this could result in another gap of about Sh17 billion.
She said that World Bank support for the blood transfusion programme of about 2.8 billion ends next month, and the ministry is still trying to secure other funding.
“We are engaging in diplomatic interventions and on Wednesday we will be meeting the Acting Ambassador of the United States and we are also developing an impact assessment to share with development partners to help with coming interventions,” said the CS.
“We also ask all county governments to retain all healthcare workers for integration of the vertical program into the main health system structure,” she added.
The government has recommended the restructuring of the human resources for health to integrate the vertical component to the newly formed Taifa Care and that counties should set aside funds that will help in the smooth transition from the donor fund cuts.
Last week, the US government started issuing notices to indicate termination of contracts and grants to some of the Kenya-based non-governmental organisations whose programs were funded by their government.
