Mask up, your 'flu' might be mild Covid-19 - Experts

Flu

Prof Matilu Mwau says that the suspected flu outbreak could be Covid-19 and it is advisable to observe preventive measures.

Photo credit: Pool

Most Kenyans seem to have moved on from the pandemic but with a suspected flu outbreak in the country, experts are warning of a possible mild Covid-19 wave.

From the time the Ministry of Health lifted the mask mandate on March 11, many dropped their face coverings and few are observing preventive measures against Covid-19. Kenyans have gone back to shaking hands while few are sanitising, implying that if there is a new Covid-19 wave or a flu outbreak, it would spread to many people. Experts have now urged Kenyans to heed preventive measures.

“You know when it strikes, it presents differently in individuals. Some get mild symptoms, while in others it is severe to an extent that we lose them depending on one’s immunity,” says Prof Matilu Mwau, an infectious diseases researcher at the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri).

He says that the suspected flu outbreak could be Covid-19 and it is advisable to observe preventive measures.

“We need to continue washing our hands and observe social distance when in public places,” he said.

Dr Patrick Amoth, acting Health director-general, said the virus is still in the community and Kenyans should be vigilant.

“We have not defeated this yet. We have the virus with us and we should continue observing the measures and ensure that we remain safe,” Dr Amoth said.

This comes as Covid-19 modelling wave experts insist that the country is likely to record a rise in Covid-19 cases this month. Prof Shem Otoi, modelling expert, said Kenya could be warming up for another Covid-19 wave.

Shem Otoi Sam

Dr Shem Otoi Sam, a member of the LREB advisory committee and an infectious diseases modelling expert.

Photo credit: Tonny Omondi | Nation Media Group

“I do not have evidence to suggest otherwise, my prediction of a new wave still stands. As you may know, variant BA.2 is causing more infections in some states of the USA and Europe,” he said.

He added: “With the political gatherings and low vaccination rate, this is a well-trodden path with an elusive virus that strikes when we relax all public health protocols.”

As for why the numbers are still low despite the political gatherings, Dr Otoi said “the periodicity predicted has not elapsed”. Periodicity refers to the length it takes for a wave to occur before another one sets in. This means that we are still in the previous wave and until the next wave, low infection numbers are expected.

Vaccines

As of Tuesday, 18 million doses of vaccines had been administered – 16 million to adults, 1.3 million to those 15 and above, 32,587 to those below 15, and 314,185 booster shots.

The proportion of adults who are fully vaccinated remains at 30 percent, which means that out of 10 adults, only three are fully vaccinated, with the remaining seven having either received the first dose or not received a dose at all.

On Tuesday, 25 Kenyans tested positive for the virus, bringing the total of confirmed positive cases to 324,071, with 5,649 deaths.

Dr Ahmed Kalebi, an independent consultant pathologist, noted that the rising flu cases are caused by the human influenza type A virus, a contagious viral infection that attacks the respiratory system.

Kenyans in the last few weeks have complained of flu-like symptoms, including running nose, fever, sneezing and headaches.

“It’s flu season, and based on the information that I’ve received from lab colleagues testing swab samples for Covid-19, where the PCR test also detects influenza type A & B plus RSV, the unfolding increase in flu cases is caused by human influenza type A virus, while Covid-19 remains low,” Dr Kalebi said.

Dr Kalebi asked Kenyans to take protective measures.

“Whatever the cause of the ongoing spike in viral respiratory illnesses, and irrespective of whether it’s due to a surge in flu A with or without rising Covid-19, the protective measures remain the same for all,” he advised.

But Dr Samwel Symekher, a Kemri researcher, said their surveillance shows there is no outbreak.

“The samples we have been working on show low coronavirus but we have not yet detected any influenza virus cases in the country,” Dr Symekher said.

Ms Susan Mochache, principal secretary in the Ministry of Health, said risks of infection increase as Kenyans spend most of their time indoors during cold seasons.

“We gather closely in spaces that may offer less-than-ideal ventilation and reduced social distance. Heating systems also make indoor air drier. Studies have shown that these conditions can greatly affect the transmission of respiratory viruses,” she said.

She added: “Although Kenya is reporting fewer and fewer cases of Covid-19, this does not signal the end of the pandemic. We must make the most of this opportunity to protect as many people as possible with the vaccine and close all the avenues for a Covid-19 resurgence. Unfortunately, Kenya’s Covid-19 vaccine uptake has remained low.”

She advised Kenyans to get vaccinated against the flu and Covid-19 because it is the best protection against serious illness and admission to the hospital.