Factors influencing race between Governor Kuti and Doyo

Mohamed Kuti and Godana Doyo

Isiolo Governor Mohamed Kuti (left) who is in for a tough battle with Mr Godana Doyo (right), the man he dethroned in 2017.

Photo credit: Waweru Wairimu | Nation Media Group

As campaigns gain momentum in Isiolo, Governor Mohamed Kuti is in for a tough battle with Mr Godana Doyo, the man he dethroned in 2017.

The allies-turned-foes will for the second time fight it out for the county’s top seat, which Mr Doyo is keen to reclaim and the incumbent hopes to retain.

But it is their scramble for a place in ODM leader Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja coalition that will shape the contest as the elections draw nearer.

Aware that the majority of residents are leaning towards Mr Odinga’s side, the two opponents are keen to stay in the camp for as long as they can to benefit from the Azimio wave.

Out of the five MPs from the county — Hassan Odha (Isiolo North), Fatuma Dullo (Senator) Abdi Koropu (Isiolo South) and Rehema Jaldesa (Woman Rep) and nominated Senator Abshiro Halakhe — only Ms Jaldesa is supporting Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

During a recent interview with Nation.Africa, Mr Doyo said he had not settled on the specific party he will vie on but confirmed that it will be an outfit allied to Azimio.

PNU candidate?

The former governor has accompanied Agriculture CS Peter Munya for public meetings several times, indicating he might vie on the Party of National Unity (PNU), even as sources in his camp revealed that Gideon Moi’s Kanu had also approached him.

“We will have decided on the party by February but I am in Azimio,” Mr Doyo said when asked if he would vie on UDA ticket.

Dr Kuti, who was elected governor as an independent candidate in 2017, said every serious candidate is supporting Mr Odinga’s presidential bid and revealed that he will vie on a party affiliated to Azimio.

In the 2017 elections, Dr Kuti, then Isiolo senator, ditched Jubilee for Narc Kenya three days before the nominations over allegations that he would be rigged out in favour of Mr Abdul Bahari, now Devolution CAS. Analysts say this year’s contest might not have a lot of surprises.

Gaining ground

On October 16, at Mr Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja event in Isiolo town, Governor Kuti was booed, forcing him to cut short his speech. That could suggest Mr Doyo is gradually gaining ground and winning the hearts of residents.

Regardless of claims that the heckling youths were paid by one of the politicians, analysts say the happenings of that day portrayed Mr Doyo as a “loved” leader even though he, too, struggled to address the rowdy crowd.

And while their supporters engage each other on social platforms, the two leaders are busy crafting their campaign teams to help push their agenda.

Sources in Governor Kuti’s camp revealed that he is keen to come up with a political team of aspirants from several communities to represent the face of the cosmopolitan county.

This follows a January 4 endorsement of Borana politicians for governor and four MPs’ seats, a move other communities termed as being against the spirit of diversity.

“We will soon reveal our team but we will not have a line-up like that of the other team. Ours will be inclusive to cover other communities,” Governor Kuti, the longest-serving politician in the county, told Nation.Africa.

The county boss hopes to take advantage of the disaffection of the communities to form a formidable force against that of Mr Doyo.

Elders reviewing decision

Nation.Africa is reliably informed that the Borana Council of Elders is reconsidering its earlier decision to pick a running mate from the Somali community following discontent from non-Muslim communities.

The other communities are enraged that the decision to pick a Somali deputy was reached at a meeting where one of the Somali elders depicted non-Muslims in bad light.

“Adequate consultations were not done before the announcement in Kinna. The decision might be changed,” a source revealed.

It is for that reason that elders and a section of the leaders have held several meetings in bid to agree on a possible candidate for deputy governor.

“The process could take some time. We are weighing all the options to ensure we consider concerns from other communities,” another source said.

Having had a Somali deputy, Mohammed Guleid from 2013-2017, Mr Doyo might be compelled to pick a running mate from either the Turkana or the Ameru community, with the former more likely.

Dr James Loasa, a Turkana, is among the likely persons to deputise him.

Mr Doyo had in 2017 picked Barnabas Esunyen, and picking another Turkana running mate could help him bag the community’s 10,000 votes.

Kuti’s uphill task

Governor Kuti, too, faces an uphill task deciding who to pick as a deputy – a Somali, a Turkana or a Meru – in view of the votes each will add to his basket.

While the Somali have fewer votes than the Turkana and the Ameru, they are so critical in financing the campaigns, which significantly influences the perception and reception of candidates by the public.

Similarly, Governor Kuti’s deputy is a Somali and picking a running mate from the same community will portray him as a biased leader, which could see him lose a huge chunk of votes.

A source in his camp revealed that the governor will support MP candidates from one of the communities and pick a deputy from the other, with a majority of his supporters calling for an Ameru deputy.

“The plan is to consolidate votes from all the communities. The Ameru card (for deputy) is most hyped as their two MP aspirants have refused to agree,” the source revealed, meaning the governor will likely support a Turkana MP aspirant.

Endorsed by clan

Governor Kuti has already been endorsed by his Sakuye clan and Mr Doyo by the Borana Council of Elders.

While one’s development track will influence who becomes the next governor, the coalitions the two candidates join and the party they will vie on will largely determine who carries the day.

Mr Doyo enjoys considerable support among the Borana as its supremo while Dr Kuti has endeared himself to non-Muslim communities.

Politicians’ mobilisation skills and financial muscles will also influence the outcome of the polls.