Curse of incumbents: Why aspirants are shunning governors

In the past one week, Kenya has been treated to political theatrics from Siaya County, where Governor Cornel Rasanga endorsed Senate Minority Leader James Orengo as his preferred successor, hoping for reciprocal treatment from his newfound ally.

But Mr Orengo chose to endorse for re-election his longtime friend, Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi, instead of backing Mr Rasanga, who is eyeing the same seat when he completes his term.

Mr Orengo, Mr Rasanga and East African Legislative Assembly member Oburu Oginga were said to be planning an alliance in a line-up leaked last week.

Mr Orengo’s move to dissociate himself from the governor points to a reality in several counties where politicians seeking political seats want, for various reasons, to chart their own paths and not lean on county bosses.

One is the general curse of incumbency, which also manifests itself at the national level, where Deputy President William Ruto is distancing himself from the failures of the Jubilee administration, headed by President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Some aspirants don’t even want incumbent governors to endorse them, because that could spell doom for their political careers.

Six MPs

In Siaya, three of the six MPs - Dr Otiende Amollo (Rarieda), Mr Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), and Mr Atandi (Alego/Usonga) - have been associating themselves with Mr Orengo, and not the governor.

But the other three - Mr David Ochieng (Ugenya), Dr Gideon Ochanda (Bondo) and Mr Opiyo Wandayi (Ugunja) - appear to be silent on where their loyalty lies.

Mr Orengo says his support for Mr Atandi is based purely on the MP's performance and not friendship.

“Mr Atandi has a good chance of addressing the challenges of his constituents and also has the interests of the ODM party at heart. It is through his hard work and commitment that he was chosen to be a member of the Budget Committee,” Mr Orengo said.

Though Mr Rasanga boasted about improved infrastructure such as Siaya International Stadium, health and construction of early childhood development education classrooms, the leaders feel he has not done enough to deserve another opportunity.

Read: Rasanga endorses James Orengo for Siaya Governor seat

The same politicking has been seen across other Nyanza counties.

In Migori, many aspirants fear aligning with Governor Zachary Okoth Obado, at least not in public, for fear of being branded anti-Raila Odinga.

This is happening even as people in his administration, such as County Secretary Christopher Rusana, have declared their interest in succeeding him. But Mr Rusana has not indicated that he would follow him to his new outfit, People Democratic Party.

Senator Ochilo Ayacko

Others in the race for the Migori governor’s seat are Senator Ochilo Ayacko, Woman Representative Pamela Odhiambo, former Nyatike MP Edick Anyanga, former Cabinet minister and Rongo MP Dalmas Otieno and county assembly Speaker Boaz Okoth.

Mr Ayacko, a party stalwart, has attracted the support of Mr Junet Mohamed (Suna East), Mr Peter Masara (Suna West), Mr Tom Odege (Nyatike) and Mark Nyamita (Uriri).

Mr Obado's closeness to DP Ruto, a rival of Mr Odinga, has also made many leaders keep away not only from his meetings but also from being seen with him in public.

His situation has been compounded by the murder and corruption cases that he faces. (He is charged in the killing of university student Sharon Otieno.)

This is happening even though the county boss has massive support. If he throws his weight behind any candidate, he or she stands a better chance of winning a seat in the county.

Apart from the development record affecting incumbents, other factors are the popularity of their potential partners, clannism, party affiliation and - the most prominent one – the person’s relations with the regional kingpin and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, Mr Odinga.

Read: ODM secret line-up fuels jitters among aspirants

Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong'o had a strong team campaigning for him in 2017. Almost a year to the election, he has lost almost all of them, having disagreed on the running of the county while he sacked others from his government.

These were his former chief of staff, Mr Patrick Ouya Klaausi; his former county secretary, Dr Olang'o Onudi; Senator Fred Outa; and county executives Mr Nerry Achar, Mr Richard Ogendo and Dr Obiero Ogone.

Initially, Governor Nyong’o had the support of MPs James Nyikal (Seme), Jared Okello (Nyando), Aduma Owuor (Nyakach) and Olago Aluoch (Kisumu West), but this has since changed and he currently enjoys the support of county assembly Speaker Elisha Jack Oraro.

Other leaders who have openly hit out at the governor are Mr Onyango K’oyoo (Muhoroni), Mr Shakeel Shabir (Kisumu East) Mr Outa, former Speaker Onyango Oloo and Woman Representative Rozah Buyu.

Credible nominations

Nominated Senator Rose Nyamunga and Kisumu Central’s Fred Ouda have not declared whether they support the governor or not but are campaigning for their seats individually.

There is already a strong push for free, fair and credible nominations in the county, with aspirants accusing Mr Nyong'o of boasting about being endorsed by Mr Odinga.

In neighbouring Homa Bay County, the issue of underdevelopment resurfaces, with the likes of Mr John Mbadi, Suba South MP, feeling the incumbent has done little to change the lives of constituents in the past nine years.

Though they are both strong members of ODM, Mr Mbadi is not keen on having Mr Awiti on his team, fearing the latter’s baggage from the current government.

The front-runners are Homa Bay Woman Representative Ms Gladys Wanga, Mr Mbadi, Nairobi ex-governor Dr Evans Kidero, Deputy Governor Mr Hamilton Orata and former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga.

All the aspirants have been attacking each other on various platforms but are yet to attract the eight MPs to their side, apart from Kasipul’s Charles Ong’ondo Were, who is said to be supporting Ms Wanga.

Court predicaments

The MPs have also kept away from Dr Kidero’s events, with some fearing associating with him because of his court predicaments and the bashing he has received over claims that he wants to be Luo Nyanza’s kingpin.

The same is happening in neighbouring Kisii County, where Deputy Governor Joash Maangi has chosen a totally different path from his boss of nine years, Mr James Ongwae of ODM.

Mr Maangi has chosen to work with Dr Ruto of the United Democratic Alliance party as he seeks the county's top seat, which has put him on the warpath with not only Mr Ongwae but Mr Odinga.

But he says this is the predicament most ambitious deputy governor’s face.

“I have aligned myself with the legacy of my boss, (a second-term governor), so that we take joint credit. This is what I am preaching during my campaigns and this has reduced the conflict between us,” Mr Maangi said.

As in Dr Ruto’s, some politicians choose to associate only with the good development projects but distance themselves from the bad.

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