Tough balancing Act: The interplay of UK’s post-Brexit relationship with Africa

As one of Africa’s leading economic partners, the United Kingdom has played a huge role in shaping policies across the continent over the years.

Decades after independence, London still occupies a special place in many African capitals. As Britain explores new trade deals after its formal separation from the European Union, will Africans leverage the changes to their advantages? Will the UK and Africa work together to create opportunities for their people?

Lately, the UK-Africa relationship has been dominated by trade and investment issues as London seeks to improve its relationship with countries across the globe. 

At the same time, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) – a pillar in the march towards a border-free Africa – gives hope to millions on the continent despite the Covid-19 pandemic that has ravaged economies the world over. 

Appreciating the context of what post-pandemic growth looks like will afford the interests stemming from the UK-Africa relationship a fighting chance in seeking a balance between intercontinental and intra-continental trade and investment deals. 

No longer tethered to the EU’s trade agreements, London’s post-Brexit agenda focuses on manoeuvring its relationship with individual states. Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated at last year’s UK-Africa Summit that Britain had all it took to become Africa’s “obvious partner of choice”.

In this vein, the UK has inked post-Brexit deals with 15 African countries, including the UK-Southern African Customs Union Regional Trade Agreement, it’s arrangement with the Eastern and Southern Africa Bloc and the UK-Kenya deal. These account for $29.2 billion of annual trade.

London has also adopted the EU’s generalised scheme of preferences, giving 35 countries reduced or zero tariffs for exports to the UK. The country has set its sight on key players on the continent including Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya as potential partners to achieve its trade objectives on the continent.

Economic opportunities

The implementation of the AfCFTA, on the other hand, signals the shift of players on the continent towards a regionalised economy (akin to the EU arrangement that Britain just opted out of). 

If well implemented, AfCFTA can generate economic opportunities across the continent, diversify and facilitate ease of trade to benefit more players, particularly landlocked nations. This not only creates a better network of trade on the continent – a painstaking experience in the past – but has the potential to generate more exports. 

Despite the contracted growth in 2020 occasioned by the pandemic, African Development Bank (AfDB) president Akinwumi Adesina is hopeful for a bright future and expects a recovery to 3.4 per cent growth this year.
          
This offers states a chance to expand their exports, which could signify an era of positive trade opportunities. As such, the long awaited move to integrate the continent is showing optimistic signs, both within and in its relationship with the UK. 

These developments are key in determining the balance of power between the market players, ultimately trickling down to beneficiaries of the deals.

While many countries have accepted roll-over agreements with the UK, essentially changing nothing from their earlier positions, others like Ghana are leveraging the UK’s eagerness to provide them with a better bargaining power and spent ample time doing so, with only an interim UK-Ghana deal being finalised recently. 

While selfish national goals could have been accepted in the past, more states are now working together. This is the experience with Kenya facing pushback on its trade deal, which was ultimately extended to the East African Community. It is thus time for African countries to take a pragmatic approach to a long-term relationship with the UK. 

However, with many deals already in force, the hope that African nations would be able to leverage agreements to create a relationship on a new, ‘equal-partner basis’ seems redundant. But, countries may consider what inhibited earlier movement of exports to level the playing field.

New partnerships

The UK’s approach is also key in how it deals with its former colonies. Its philosophy is already filled with unflattering comments from State leaders and uncertainty about London’s intentions in Africa. As such, there needs to be a lot of repair done politically before the UK can benefit from the continent economically. 

This will be influenced by how important it is for the UK to set up a quid pro quo system with the continent because the “scramble to establish new partnerships and revive older ones seems more a reaction to the British economy’s hit from Brexit than any newfound love for Africa”. 

The UK must take responsibility towards its approach to Commonwealth countries in the past and seek to revive a relationships beyond trade but which very much will influence this, providing substantial advantages, such as facilitating technology transfer to these states. 

This would not only sweeten the deal but has advantageous effects to the UK as exports from the continent will be eased through innovative developments on the back of the provided know-how. 

This may be a good starting point for discussions at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Rwanda this year. Aptly themed, ‘Delivering a Common Future: Connecting, Innovating, Transforming’, this will serve as an opportunity for the UK to put more on the table to ensure a good standing, particularly with nations that have shifted their ‘allegiance’ to China. 

It’s also an opportunity for Africa to put forward its position, fastidious to the needs of the people by embracing the private sector. The ‘community-focused approach’ is an excellent theme on these issues and, as such, any future deal should satisfy AfCFTA objectives to catalyse the expansion of the sector. 

Adopting the same trade deals continentally, or in regional blocs, would enable firms to expand their operations and diversify opportunities while maintaining the expectation of stability and foresight to make such investments justifiable. 

As UK-Africa and AfCFTA trade negotiations progress, it is difficult to state what the outcome may be. However, if facilitated correctly, AfCFTA can provide opportunities for unique market players to create a positive balance of power between Africa and the UK.