President William Ruto (left) and Raila Odinga at the African Union Commission headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15, 2025.
The African Union Commission polls put on continental display the toxicity and pure childishness of domestic Kenya politics.
Mr Raila Odinga went to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, as the Kenyan candidate for the top continental civil service job, but everything was reduced to crass local rivalries. The spectacle of a large dancing troupe of noisy Kenyan politicians in the Ethiopian capital to cheer on their man and “guard the vote” provided only embarrassing optics.
Mr Odinga’s quest for the AUC chairmanship was supposed to provide his swansong, a dignified retirement at the age of 80 years after a lifetime in the hurly-burly of Kenyan politics. He lost to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, and already the recriminations and blame games have started in earnest.
Acres of newsprint and hours of TV talking heads have already been dispensed on analysis of why Raila lost. Much of it is not worth repeating here, but there must be deep lessons on why probably the loudest and most expensive campaign ever for an AU seat came a cropper.
Mr Odinga had the full and unstinting support of President William Ruto, who ensured there was no shortage of resources in facilitating campaign junkets to various African capitals.
Kenya is an economic and military powerhouse in the wider Eastern Africa region, but lost out to tiny Djibouti that ran a much more modest campaign.
Raila victory
Premature celebration of a Raila victory also overlooked the simple fact that the AU chairmanship is essentially a civil service job. It calls for a low-key, self-effacing bureaucrat, a head of secretariat rather than forceful and towering political figure who sees himself as an equal, if not a superior, to the African heads of State who cast the ballots.
Anyway, the big question now is what next for Raila. He took a sabbatical from local politics to gun for the AUC seat, but is not one to sit twiddling his thumbs in unemployment. He will be back.
To oil his quest for the continental job, he had to enter into alliance with President Ruto under the so-called broad-based government, leaving the opposition Azimio coalition leaderless and rudderless; and the Gen Z uprising of last June that had shaken the Kenya Kwanza government to the core betrayed and in tatters.
The Railamania and Railaphobia that has for more than two decades been a feature of Kenyan politics was evident during the AUC campaigns, and will be seen again in coming days as the towering figure comes back home.
Whether coming back to work out a quiet retirement or to reclaim his place on the political scene, he will undoubtedly play a critical role in plotting political direction leading to the 2027 elections.
Mr Odinga’s dalliance with President Ruto was critical to hastening the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua last October. His ODM troops have also been enthusiastic players in driving political re-alignments, which include aggressive attacks on Mr Gachagua’s populous Mt Kenya base, which provided nearly 50 percent of Dr Ruto’s vote in 2022.
AUC election loss
The reprise of the 2007 41 versus 1 strategy (all other communities uniting against the dominant Mt Kenya) is ongoing. In the wake of the AUC election loss, Mr Odinga’s acolytes went to the ludicrous extent of accusing former President Uhuru Kenyatta of being in Addis to turn previously committed African presidents against the Kenya candidate. The claim was obviously hogwash, but they were inadvertently suggesting that Mr Kenyatta carries more clout and influence in the AU corridors than President Ruto.
Then there was Mr Gachagua’s backhanded commiseration on Mr Odinga’s defeat, suggesting that the opposition icon can now resume his rightful place in the anti-Ruto grouping. That is unlikely to happen as Mr Odinga had already made it clear from the time he rejected the Gen Z ‘Ruto Must Go’ campaign that he wouldn’t countenance Mr Gachagua, then next in line of succession, moving in to fill the breach.
So Mr Odinga remains committed to President Ruto for now, but has to navigate complications of rifts within his ODM party between those pushing support for President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid, and those insisting the party will field its own candidate.
To continue supporting Kenya Kwanza, Mr Odinga will extract a Kings ransom. The more Mt Kenya is driven away, the more he has President Ruto by the gonads. He will probably demand nothing less than running-mate for ODM, or return of the office of Prime Minister as head of government.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, both looking to succeed President Ruto, will be looking over their shoulders.
