Raila the billionaires’ candidate

Raila Odinga

ODM leader Raila Odinga arrives at Kasarani Stadium on December 10, 2021for the Azimio la Umoja convention where he declared he will vie for the presidency in the 2022 elections.

Photo credit: Jeff Angote | Nation Media Group

Raila’s fifth run for presidency is turning out to be an anti-climax. The “enigma” has lost his mojo, and seems unable to cobble together a movement that could finally put him in the State House. No longer his own man, Raila is a fatigued billionaires’ candidate whose campaign is clearly stuck in a rut.

This troubling reality notwithstanding, there is a steady stream of fanciful headlines and false narratives about his run. Predictably, many of these exaggerated claims of progress and success have unraveled and fallen apart on their own.

Without proper strategists and deep thinkers, Raila has become static and repetitive, offering stale history lessons including his own suffering at the hands of arap Moi and taking cheap shots at the deputy president by making unsubstantiated corruption allegations.

None of this stuff is inspiring to young voters. Neither is it relevant to the decisive voters of Mt Kenya region that he must court. Indeed, Raila stands for the status quo as a candidate and protector of the triple dynasty of the Kenyattas, Mois and Odingas at the time when the country is yearning for true change.

Purveyor of violence

For Raila, the 2018 handshake was a poisoned chalice. He is accused of forsaking his Canaan-bound supporters by returning to Egypt to dine with the Pharaohs and tormentors of his people, because he alleges “there were crocodiles in the Red Sea”. The president has intimated that his handshake with Raila was an absolute necessity for the country to regain peace.

While this is a palatable message, it also presupposes and acknowledges that Raila is the architect and purveyor of violence in the land. Irked, Rev Timothy Njoya asked on Twitter: “Why was Uhuru so traumatised by Raila’s attempt to capture power by violence that he generalised his trauma as a latent desire for all tribes to capture power by violence?”.

Some of Raila’s more hardcore supporters now concede that he has committed too many needless blunders that have narrowed his path to the house on the hill. They say, for example, that the handshake damaged the Raila brand and projected him as a desperate and unprincipled power hungry leader that could easily be hoodwinked and caged by his nemesis.

To their credit, Raila seems to have abandoned his ideals, and is shamelessly partaking, supporting or excusing vices he previously fought against. Also, he has remained strenuously silent in the face of repeated violation of Miguna Miguna’s right to return to the land of his birth.

Those who have studied Raila speak of his softer underbelly. He is disloyal and extremely gullible. He can easily be baited by a promise of donated power - a weakness repeatedly exploited by his opponents. Predictably, he has responded to such prospects by rejecting counsel, scattering allies, and pulling down his own camp.

As PM, he lost himself in the false embrace of affection, from a people he claimed stole his win, and quickly cast aside fellow pentagon members and founding members of ODM: Charity Ngilu, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joe Nyagah and Najib Balala.

When Uhuru Kenyatta leveraged the handshake by pushing to the periphery his deputy and close allies, Raila responded by withdrawing negotiated leadership positions from Nasa-affiliated member parties and handing them to his ODM members.

He replaced Moses Wetangula with James Orengo, as the Senate minority leader. He has also resisted calls to share with Wiper, Ford Kenya and ANC, the billions of shillings that were given to the NASA coalition through his ODM party. Such strategic blunders and myopia has dire consequences, as he is about to learn.

Troubled relationship with Kibaki

There is a well-known backstory to Raila’s continued struggle to make meaningful inroads in Mt Kenya region. The populace remains genuinely skeptical of his candidature and are unmoved by his drab speeches.

Raila was deemed as a violent and belligerent aggressor in his troubled relationship with President Kibaki, a perception that remains fresh and indelible in the psyche of a Kikuyu. In 2013 and 2017, local leaders repeatedly warned their communities that he remained a danger to them, their businesses, and way of life. This reputation is engrained in the minds of many.

There is also the question of character and caliber of Raila’s surrogates in the Mt Kenya region who are mostly out-of-touch billionaires, failed politicians, bloggers and masters of double speak. Unpopular corrupt governors that have looted county coffers dry along with repulsive individuals, including despised “Covid-millionaires” are his champions.

It is also possible that the impact of Mt Kenya Foundation is grossly exaggerated since this group is motivated by the need to protect their assets, wealth and privileged status - none of which aligns with the humble aspirations of the peasant majority simply looking for a hand up.