Raila has nothing to lose; Ruto regime must stop false bravado

As clouds of serious unrest gather in Kenya, calls for dialogue between the main protagonists have been pouring in from business lobbies, civil society, the clergy and ordinary Kenyans.

I’ll tell the peacemongers this for free: this government is not interested in that so-called dialogue. The signals emanating from there are unmistakable.

The authorities see dialogue as synonymous with a Handshake, which they totally oppose. Yet dialogue does not necessarily mean a Handshake. In many democratic countries, the government and opposition negotiate on issues all the time. If our politicians don’t want to talk, fair enough. The collapsing economy will speak loud and clear. Oh...or we do prayers? 

The certainty that UDA adherents have that Raila Odinga only wants a Handshake is hilarious. Why are they so eager to introduce an issue that’s not even there? Raila has stated categorically he’s not interested.

Not with this regime certainly. And what about Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Jeremiah Kioni, Eugene Wamalwa? They desire a Handshake too? Come on. 

Too many issues

That said, the problem with Raila’s protest movement is that it is has wrapped itself in too many issues. When dealing with the street mob, stick to one central theme. Let him focus on the harsh cost of living. The crowds Raila addresses are constantly chanting “Unga! Unga! Unga!” That's the cue.

Other issues — IEBC, servers et cetera — can be brought up elsewhere. And he should go easy on the calls for corporate boycotts. They can cut both ways. They also unsettle other influential business players, to Azimio’s detriment. 

UDA stalwarts have convinced themselves that retired President Uhuru Kenyatta is funding the Azimio demonstrations. This storyline has been weaved most ardently by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and a clique of noisy Mt Kenya UDAists typified by Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wa.

They've put out no proof, or even a suggestion of what form that ‘sponsorship’ takes. Just innuendo. Are the demonstrators paid, say Sh3,000 each? Or Uhuru fuels Raila’s vehicle convoys? Where’s the damn evidence? The habit of seeing bogeymen behind everything was a Nyayo characteristic.

UDA has copied that and is imagining nothing can have agency without a hidden ‘master’. Moism thrived by clouding issues with such scarecrows. Yet anybody familiar with Raila’s chequered career knows depicting him as anybody’s flunky is nonsense. He has always acted on his own initiative when it comes to demonstrations. 

While twisting UDA’s own toxic hustlers-vs-dynasties prophesy, Ichung’wa now claims Uhuru stage-managed the Monday looting spree at his family's Northlands farm - to play the victim. The reasoning baffles. Mmm....does it remind you of the weird fables once spun by the Nyayo regime? Such as the one about the politically-instigated tribal clashes —which targeted opposition supporters — being masterminded by the same opposition?

The Daily Nation reported the Northlands attack was hatched on March 24 by two MPs, a former governor, and a Kiambu vernacular musician. The plan was firmed up on Sunday when a larger group comprising CSs, MPs, MCAs, governors and public sector notables converged at a Thika resort.

The hired looters cut trees, stole sheep and later set fire to part of the farm as the police conveniently kept away for 24 hours. Journalists were attacked and their equipment was damaged. Who are these pseudo ‘sons of Mau Mau’ who are cheap livestock thieves? 

False bravado

First of all, this regime needs to behave with less arrogance, less chest-thumping, and less false bravado. In particular, there's a strain of unbridled hubris displayed by some youngish UDA politicians from Mt Kenya. The hatred they hold within themselves is shocking. Their impunity reflects that of UDA generally: Amid the cost of living crisis, the appointment of 50 CASs was utterly insensitive. A court order directing they don't take up office seems to have been ignored. Such insensitivity is something the government will come to rue. And what was that about spouses' offices? 

Two, the UDA leadership should drop their governance-through-vendetta mode. It's so wrong. Intemperately attacking the previous leadership has been their stock in trade. It's vindictive and petty. In particular, Gachagua, Ichung'wa, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Trade CS Moses Kuria exhibit the worst of these "hate issues."

Uhuru dwells permanently inside their vengeful heads. They are obsessed with him. Truth be told, that will bring a nasty backlash from Mt Kenya. Move on, guys. Stop shooting empty gas. There's life after Uhuru.

Three, Interior CS Kithure Kindiki and the police cannot just wake up and declare demonstrations illegal. Azimio has been notifying the police as required by law whenever they have an impending demonstration. Most importantly, the police should not forget Article 37 of the Constitution remains operational.

A loaded threat from the Communications Authority to ban particular TV stations for covering the demonstrations was mercifully overturned by the courts. Another attempt by former Nairobi governor Mike Sonko to have the courts outlaw the demonstrations were also scuttled at the High Court.

Now the Interior ministry intends to introduce subsidiary legislation to cripple the demonstrations. That's tricky. You'll have to amend Article 37. And because it is part of the Bill of Rights, you must hold a referendum. Catch-22. 

For Raila, storming State House was always a red herring. The game plan is different. Nairobi will witness endless shutdowns as long as the protests persist. It'll be the new normal. The battered economy will grind to a halt.

Both Raila and the government know this situation is untenable. Something must give. It is not inconceivable that both sides could strike a truce. Is it any wonder Gachagua and his Mt Kenya UDA faction are the most implacable against a peace deal? It's because they'd become irrelevant. Anyway the country is greater than everybody. 

There's been talk of Raila's arrest if the demonstrations don't stop. It's not beyond the authorities to commit such a blunder. Then all hell will break loose. Hell, literally. Another Catch-22. 

[email protected]; @GitauWarigi