Our politics is still hard to read

Uganda had a strange election experience culminating in the voting yesterday: Certainly one of its most violent political seasons.

Cynical Ugandans have been privately observing, with some wry humour, that how the people will vote this time is in doubt but not the winner.

Uganda comes hot on the heels of the US election where, to the disbelief of the world, a president refused to accept defeat, intimidated and threatened politicians and State officials to steal the election for him, was defeated in the courts but incited white supremacists and other militia to attack Congress to prevent the certification of his rival’s results and possibly kidnap and harm the second and third officials in line of constitutional succession.

It is, perhaps, by the grace of God that the armed mob, many in military garb, which had constructed a working gallows in front of the Capitol and was baying for Vice-President Mike Pence’s blood, did not lynch him, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and outspoken liberal congresswomen Alexandria Ocazio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and the rest of The Squad.

Before that was the election in Tanzania — to apply the terminology in its most elastic manifestation.

Strange happenings

Our own election is in 577 days. Is it our turn to experience strange electoral happenings? Shall we see a clash between the wheelbarrow crowd and dynastic mobs, culminating in ugly scenes?

 Is it going to be another season of instability and cliff-hanger moments requiring the intervention of foreign countries to prevent us from tearing ourselves into bloody pieces?

Well, at the very least, expect strange twists and turns over the next 82 weeks, or one year and seven months. I don’t want to read the tea leaves or stare into the crystal ball. I leave all that to Makau Mutua, SUNY Distinguished Professor and Margaret W. Wong Professor, Buffalo School of Law, who has more titles and better eyesight and, therefore, superbly better qualified at reading and staring at stuff.

But as a humble, ageing reporter with omnidirectional ears, I warn you that nothing in our political reality is linear. In fact, Kenyan presidential politics is subtle, complex, never linear and a mess of deception, disinformation and betrayal.

You can predict the weather by observing the behaviour of animals which have better senses than yourself. Similarly, you can get a sense of the ride ahead by observing the omens and other phenomena. Here are a couple of things to think about.

Where is the President? I know I have been away but there seems to be a loud lacuna wafting out of the big governor’s mansion on the hill overlooking our fair city.

Deep State mandarins

The country’s politics appears to have been put on hold with civil servants and Deep State mandarins given the reins, not to ride the horse but watch it as it feeds.

Maybe people are catching a breather and preparing for the busy season. Politics abhors a vacuum, which inevitably creates room for mischief. And power is an illusion, a body of perceptions. These are created by presence and dominance, I think.

The Building Bridges Initiative — or ‘Breaking Bridges Initiative’ according to the electoral commission — is apparently the President’s most important political project.

He is joined in it by opposition leader Raila Odinga and its purpose is to create political stability by forcing politicians to form power-sharing coalitions, distributing power to the different tribes and weaving Parliament and the Executive back together.

This project is doing so badly, according to Senate Majority Chief Whip Irungu Kang’ata, that it is dead in the water in the President’s own central Kenya backyard in the event of a referendum.

Where is the alternative candidate to Deputy President William Ruto? Even his most vicious critics will admit that Dr Ruto has had an headstart and, though premature to say he has opened an unassailable lead, he is definitely 10 miles ahead of his nearest rival.

He is hungry, has copious energy and focus, loads of money and the ruthless political cunning for the contest. And he has been allowed a clear run.

There are questions about Mr Odinga, another formidable politician. Will he run? Mr Odinga is surrounded by politicians whose survival depend on his being on the ticket. Unless he provides his broad coattails for them to cling to, they are finished.

My own sense is that the noise from the folks around him does not reflect political reality or his deepest thoughts. Does he have the huge sums of money for a presidential run? Does he still want it?

Presidential ambitions

With the exception of Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, an excellent candidate on paper if not exactly ready-made for the mud of our politics, where are the other candidates? There are folks who are waiting for a “Tosha” but are so bashful that if you so much as stand in public and identify them as having presidential ambitions, they could sue you. Such folk, however qualified, are not bold enough to run, leave alone govern.

We are in for a bumpy, strange ride. Bring along your sense of humour.

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