Let’s consider demographics-driven education for development by 2050

The developing countries are set to have major increases in population in this period. According to projections by the United Nations, the population of Kenya will rise from 48 million last year to 85 million.

In the neighbourhood, the population of Tanzania will increase from 60 t0 129 million, Uganda 46 to 95 million, the Democratic Republic of Congo 90 to 194 million, Rwanda 13 to 23 million, Burundi 11 to 25 million and Ethiopia 115 to 205 million in the same period.

In a 2,500-kilometre radius from Nairobi, there will be 800 million people, including in Somalia. This is a huge market for Kenyan goods and services that we should exploit. We need to produce a better-educated and skilled workforce than the neighbours.

First, we could develop our tertiary institutions to the extent that we will attract students from these countries to study in Kenya as a source of foreign currency. Secondly, we could develop our hospitals to become the leading medical tourism destination in the region, just as India is to Africa.

Top-notch professionals

Thirdly, we could develop agriculture and export food and textiles to this emergent population, with huge economic benefits.

Fourthly, we could expand TVET institutions to produce engineers and artisans who can build houses and roads in these countries just as China is doing in Africa. Fifth, we could ensure that tertiary institutions produce top-notch professionals such as economists, doctors, accountants, hotel managers, ICT experts and lawyers for export to these countries.

Sixth, we could take advantage of the competitive advantage Kenya has as an Anglophone country to supply teachers to the DRC, Mozambique, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Burundi, which are gradually embracing English as a foreign language.

Seventh, we could facilitate our advanced banking sector, including savings and credit co-operative societies to export expertise by setting up branches in these countries.

Lastly, we could give incentives to major manufacturers of such items as vehicles, electronics, watches, iron and steel, resins and plastics and textiles to set up their factories in Kenya to supply the region.

However, the UN says the population of the developed countries will change differently. The United States from 331 to 379 million, Russia 146 to 136 million, Japan 126 to 106 million, Germany 83 to 79 million, France 65 to 72 million, the United Kingdom 66 to 72 million, Italy 60 to 58 million, Spain 47 to 50 million and Poland 38 to 34 million.

Clearly, their populations will decline or increase marginally over the period. This follows the observation that “during the period 2010-2020, 14 countries have seen a net inflow of more than one million immigrants. These include Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Italy, The Russian

Declining populations

Federation, Serbia and Ukraine and this has helped to offset population losses caused by a negative natural increase”. This trend is likely to continue in view of the declining populations.

Could we configure our education system so that post-primary education institution graduates have the skills to get jobs in the countries with declining or ageing populations?

Could we encourage youth to specialise in sports and games and migrate to these countries to represent them in competitions?

The shift to the Competency-Based Curriculum is necessary but inadequate to answer these questions. These prospects need the trade, commerce, industrialisation, foreign affairs, co-operatives, agriculture, labour and regional co-operation ministries that are charged with signing the treaties and protocols for export of human resources and goods, to work in harmony.

The government could re-tool the National Economic Council and come up with a Vision 2050, building on the targets and successes of Kenya Vision 2030, to take into account these demographic realities. A futuristic education curriculum is critical to this plan.

[email protected]. @BSogomoHappy birthday, Mr Sogomo!