How Kenya’s fifth republic can escape the ‘Botswana trap’

Upon the swearing-in of President-elect William Ruto on Tuesday, Kenya’s democracy will come of age. 

But despite the peaceful transfer of power, a cornerstone of democracy, East Africa’s economic powerhouse risks walking straight into the “Botswana trap”. 

Once hailed as Africa’s poster child for democracy, Botswana has lost its shine. In African politics, successors rarely take orders from predecessors. 

On the road to its General Election in 2024, a fierce struggle for supremacy between former president Ian Khama and his successor, President Mokgweetsi Masisi, has thrown the diamond-rich, corruption-free, democratic, prosperous and peaceful African country into profound uncertainty. 

Botswana epitomises a new trend in Africa’s transitions where former presidents (mainly scions of Africa’s liberators) and their families are caught up in supremacy battles with their successors. 

In Angola in 2017, the late president, Edwardo Dos Santos, handpicked a relatively unknown politician, Joao Lourenco, as his successor.

Soon, Joao showed his true colours and arrested members of the Dos Santos family, accusing them of corruption. 

A widening rift between Ruto and outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta casts a dark shadow over Kenya’s long-term stability.

As such, Kenya’s fifth republic under Ruto must change course to avoid sliding into the “Botswana trap”.

In a strikingly uncanny sense, Kenya under Uhuru is almost a mirror image of Botswana under Ian Khama. 

The outgoing head of State is the son of Kenya’s founding father, Jomo Kenyatta, who steered the country to independence in 1963 and ruled the country for 15 years till his death in 1978. 

Similarly, Khama is the son of Seretse Khama who led Botswana to independence in 1966 and served as president for 14 years till his death in 1980. 

Khama and Uhuru were the fourth Presidents of their respective countries who allegedly presided over the rollback of democracy and erosion of liberties. 

Khama inherited a Botswana that was a model democracy, a glaring exception in an increasingly authoritarian continent. 

Loyal opposition

Besides upholding a tradition of a two presidential term limit and peaceful transfer of power (the incumbent president voluntarily left office a year before the next general election), Botswana has tolerated a loyal opposition. 

It was in the top five of the best-governed and least-corrupt countries in Africa, ranked 45th out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perception Index.

But Botswana is unravelling. Khama’s Botswana exemplifies the authoritarian surge in Africa: muzzling the Press, intimidation, detention and abduction of people, erosion of judicial independence and growing numbers of extrajudicial killings. 

After Khama left power, Botswana has haemorrhaged from his power struggle with Masisi. Khama endorsed Masisi to succeed him as Botswana’s fifth President. But their relationship went sour after Masisi was sworn in on April 1, 2018. 

Khama called on Masisi to resign, accusing him of corruption and authoritarianism. When the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) re-elected Masisi in May 2019, Khama left and formed his own party, the Botswana Patriotic Front. 

Masisi defeated Khama during the October 23, 2019, parliamentary and local elections, winning 38 of the 57 elected seats in the National Assembly and raising BDP’s vote share to almost 53 per cent. 

Khama’s party won only five per cent of parliamentary seats. In November 2019, he supported the opposition leader, Duma Boko, to petition the Court of Appeal to nullify the results, citing “massive electoral discrepancies,” but lost in January 2020.

There is no visible end to the Khama-Masisi feud, which took a tragic turn in November 2021. One night, Khama escaped under the cover of darkness into South Africa. 

At home, Khama faces over 13 criminal charges. In exile, he spearheads the opposition’s campaign to oust Masisi in the October 2024 elections. Khama continues to address opposition rallies via a video link, alleging that Masisi rigged the 2019 election. 

Some of his policies have been reversed. BDP hardliners are urging Masisi to fight fire with fire, and “finish Khama off”.

This marked the end of the age of innocence in Botswana: stability and harmless politics. 

Like Botswana, Kenya under Uhuru has been unravelling. Kenya is a model democracy in Eastern Africa and the Horn region. But a festering Uhuru-Ruto supremacy battle puts democracy at risk. 

Uhuru’s “handshake” with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in March 2018 widened the rift with Ruto. Uhuru fully backed Raila’s presidential campaign. 

No congratulations

This fallout has played out publicly after the Supreme Court upheld Ruto’s victory. Accused by the Kenya Kwanza brigade as the real force behind the petition against Ruto’s victory, Uhuru criticised the Supreme Court ruling for upholding Ruto’s triumph. 

So wide has the rift become that, even though the outgoing president pledged to ensure a smooth handover of power to Ruto, he failed to congratulate him, only wishing all the elected leaders all the best in their service to Kenyans.

As Jubilee Party leader and chairman of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance, Uhuru is the de facto leader of the opposition. 

But he insists that, as a normal citizen, “my leader will be Raila Odinga”.

The loss seems to have broken Uhuru’s heart. 

“Today, you may think you have denied him (Raila) an opportunity to lead this country, but you have just denied yourself an opportunity to have a person that would have united and healed this country,” he said. 

Uhuru, who joined Raila in a strategy meeting with their MPs, vowed: “We must be prepared to be the strongest opposition and diligently discharge our duty… I will be a proud citizen who will join his leader (Raila) waiting for direction to be given.” 

Will he team with Raila to challenge Ruto in the August 10, 2027 elections?

While throwing a salvo at Uhuru’s outgoing administration for using the criminal justice system and the government machinery to settle political scores, Ruto has consciously tried to avoid the “Botswana trap”. 

He has extended an olive branch to Uhuru, promising a no-vengeance regime. 

“We will respect Mr Kenyatta in his retirement. We will give him the honour he deserves. We are not petty,” he said. After the judgement, Ruto called Uhuru to discuss the transition. 

Perhaps Uhuru should prioritise a post-presidency agenda and exit oppositionist politics to avoid the Khama-Masisi type of feud that has imperilled Botswana’s democracy. 

Peter Kagwanja is Chief Executive of the Africa Policy Institute and Adjunct scholar at the University of Nairobi and the National Defence University (Kenya)