Hiccups as Jubilee readies for a revamp
President Uhuru Kenyatta address Jubilee National Delegates Conference on May 6, 2017 at Bomas of Kenya after being nominated to run for president.
What you need to know:
- Jubilee officials insist that the NDC has merely been postponed for several days, and will certainly take place before Jamhuri Day.
- Yet no firm date for the rescheduled meeting had been communicated as of last week.
The cancellation of the much anticipated Jubilee National Delegates Convention set for November 30 was met with great dismay across what remains of the party. The official word was that the date clashed with the day President Uhuru Kenyatta is due to give his annual State of the Nation address in Parliament.
Jubilee loyalists were not amused that the powers that be could conceivably have mixed up the scheduling of the NDC with that of the SOTN. Isn't there anybody to coordinate these things?
Of course there is no question the SOTN is more important. Parliament breaks for recess this week, on December 2. Prior plans were to have the speech delivered during the week that has just ended. However the President's state visit to South Africa and the Devolution Conference in Makueni intruded. Still, aren't such events planned long in advance?
Jubilee officials insist that the NDC has merely been postponed for several days, and will certainly take place before Jamhuri Day. Yet no firm date for the rescheduled meeting had been communicated as of last week. Others half-jokingly wondered whether a malicious High Court judge will materialise and stop the planned convention in its tracks.
From parallel sources that sounded speculative came another version: that the NDC was likely to be confronted with legal issues arising from the planned removal of the Deputy President as deputy party leader of Jubilee. This being on account of him already having formed another party called United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
That sounded like a red herring. Anyway the worry of legal entanglements stalling the convening of the NDC was certain to infuriate many party loyalists. It would look like yet another instance in a long-running pattern of indecisiveness by the party leadership. The mood of the rank and file was clear: Grab the bull by the horns. You don't postpone a problem by wishing it away. You confront it head-on.
Expelling Ruto
In any case even if Jubilee tied itself in legal knots for expelling the DP and his Tangatanga group, the optics would favour the party. For all practical purposes the DP is no longer in Jubilee. For him to pose otherwise would only make him look ridiculous. However, no-one is sure he won't seek to split legal hairs to cling on, just so as to take Jubilee in circles for confusion's sake.
There is a recent precedent of ex-Senator Isaac Mwaura, who was expelled by Jubilee and thus lost his Senate seat. Then a court last week declared his deregistration was illegal, despite him having openly and repeatedly affirmed he's in UDA.
The removal of the DP from Jubilee will nonetheless be a sideshow. What the elected leaders who remain are desperate to see is a complete revamp of the party. A total and sweeping overhaul. Their very careers depend on it. There's been a huge haemorrhage of Jubilee MPs to Tangatanga that has sunk morale in the shrunken party to the lowest point. The President has affected an air of aloof disinterest.
Embarrassingly, Kieleweke has been left with just a handful of MPs and senators. What they most badly want now is the party leadership – the President specifically – to take charge of the hoped-for turnaround. Certainly the dispirited MPs cannot do it on their own. This is the President's task as party leader. He would certainly astound his supporters if he shirked this duty.
The MPs want the NDC to mark the beginning of a major rollback of the gains Tangatanga has made over many months. They want to see momentum. Will their push succeed? How about the proposed alliance with ODM? Those are the biggest tests facing Jubilee today.
Those interested to run for elective office through Jubilee find themselves in a funk. They can't plan their campaigns when the party is moribund.
Turn the tide
In an interview with the Star newspaper, Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni, who is a key pillar in Jubilee, was on point: "Without doubt, there is anxiety among Jubilee members. They expect that a clear direction be given by the party as soon as possible. The postponement of the NDC meeting, of course, increases that anxiety."
The terrible mistake Uhuru made was allowing Tangatanga to effect a hostile takeover of his Mt Kenya base. The President's indifference towards his own party's health and his neglect "to do politics" the proper way led to this powerbase getting cannibalised. Not even the diffident Mwai Kibaki allowed that to happen to his base.
As Tangatanga moved to occupy this vacuum the absentee Uhuru had left, a riot of small Mountain-based parties have emerged and added to the muddle. Like with Kibaki, effective political party management is not something Uhuru will be remembered for.
The Jubilee NDC is meant to signal the Great Comeback. Flunkies like David Murathe and Nominated MP Maina Kamanda boast that all it will take to turn the tide is a few days' presidential swing across Mt Kenya spiced with several strategic rallies there. I'm afraid it will take a lot more work than that. I'm not even sure the remaining months to the general election will be sufficient to obliterate Tangatanga from Mt Kenya. Did Uhuru leave it too late?
The analogy of Narc and PNU being formed just a few months to elections in which they triumphed is misleading. Those parties did not have to contend with a fellow who had been campaigning non-stop for three years hitherto.
The NDC will serve as the kick-off for Jubilee's relaunch and rebranding. The types Uhuru normally brings into his campaigns tend to be quite good in choreographed flash and dash. They know how to unleash the dazzle. Remember TNA in 2013? Hey, why do you think I suddenly thought of TNA and not the Jubilee of 2017?
