Denying people right to vote only yields short-term win

If Ms Anne Mwenda Kananu is not the governor of Nairobi as you read this, she will shortly be because that is the inevitable end of the process set in motion two months ago by the agreement between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga that Mr Mike Mbuvi Sonko should be removed from office.

Few politicians will be as lucky as Ms Kananu. A year in the cold after her vetting was halted by a court after her suitability was challenged, her revival was fast. The court acquiesced and on Friday, the Nairobi County Assembly vetted, affirmed her suitability and she was appointed deputy governor, all within four hours!

There were howls of dismay and complaints of illegality but the process is done and dusted. The deep state is being accused of disregarding the law but really, there was nothing new here. Impunity has never stopped a powerful political system from having its way.

What the system did not want in the city is an election. The more generous story-weavers will sell the lame line that Nairobi was being spared an expensive and unnecessary election since there was a deputy who was not in office only because of a legal technicality!

Compliant administration 

The more plausible line, confirmed by different sources within the county and in the Uhuru-Raila political axis, is that this faction has no appetite for a contested election in Nairobi, a county on which so much is riding and whose management the President has taken a personal interest in.

Losing control of Nairobi when they are pushing an unpopular BBI referendum that will lead to constitutional change is not an option.

They also want a compliant administration at the county, one that will allow the Nairobi Metropolitan Services management to drive the agenda. Refusal to collaborate was Sonko’s undoing, though he did sign off his authority willingly, denying him any sympathy he may have been expecting.

But even more relevant is the fact the Uhuru-Raila axis will not admit – the outcome of the recent Msambweni constituency poll has shaken them significantly, as has the one of a ward in Murang’a County. 

Repeat loss

Both were won by candidates supported by Deputy President William Ruto’s wing of Tangatanga. These two results have served as a clear warning that the message from DP Ruto is resonating.

The Uhuru-Raila axis is desperate that there is no repeat loss and has been quick to pull Jubilee candidates out of the elections in Matungu and Kabuchai constituencies, ostensibly to allow its partners to field its candidates.

Jubilee is also not fielding a candidate for the Machakos senatorial seat. This is the same strategy it adopted for the Msambweni seat and it did not stop the DP-supported candidate winning as an independent.

At the heart of this rivalry is the fate of the referendum and the 2022 presidential elections. Uhuru and Raila have staked their legacies on amending the constitution to “heal this country of bouts of violence that perennially hobble the country during every election cycle”.

DP Ruto opposes the process saying that it is selfish exercise to create executive positions for elites at the exclusion of the masses.

While he has said he will not oppose it actively, he has also distanced himself from it, sending a clear message that he does not back it.

That seems to be what his supporters think and from the tensions and intrigues reported from the Mt Kenya region, it seems that the BBI-driven campaign is not getting traction. That is bad news for Uhuru and Raila.

Huge drawback

Its failure could be a huge drawback to the election in which Jubilee’s candidate is not known (since it is now generally assumed that it will not be DP Ruto).

If, as whispers have it, Raila Odinga offers himself as a candidate, the handshake deal is assumed to promise him the support of President Kenyatta and his core Kikuyu base.

This could pit him against DP Ruto, a factor that could make a loss at the referendum untenable.

For now, therefore, the strategy is to avoid electoral contests as much as possible. It seems to have been successful in Nairobi.

But there is still plenty of ground to cover in this one and Ms Kananu may be the one sure winner, ultimately.

The writer is a former Editor-in-Chief of Nation Media Group and is now consulting. [email protected], @tmshindi