Bell tolls for Raila’s career as noise in ODM grows louder

It was laughable to hear Azimio presidential election loser Raila Odinga’s diatribe against the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and the Supreme Court’s judgment over his petition.

The threats were characteristic of him, the real him, and not the political clone the handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta had tried to create.

In Mr Odinga’s 30 years in politics, the institutions have only been as good as they were wont to bend to his will and do his bidding.

According to him, he lost the election because the IEBC and Venezuelans denied him victory.

The Supreme Court has received the most outrageous condemnation from Mr Odinga.

He has faulted Chief Justice Martha Koome’s speech at a funeral to the effect that the election petition judgment was “inspired by God”.

The former Prime Minister has ridiculed it as “inspired by the devil”. He went on to refer to the decision of the highest court in the land as “thuggery”, and accused the court of getting involved in politics.

This is overboard for a man who went to the same court five years ago, in 2017 and won.

Then, he told The New York Times: “I am happy to be Kenyan today. It is a historic day for the people of Kenya and, by extension, the people of Africa. This is a precedent-setting ruling, the first time in the history of African democratisation that a ruling has been made by a court nullifying an irregular presidential election.”

Well, the same court that nullified one election could also uphold another, and that cannot be a contradiction in jurisprudence, practice or terms.

Reform credentials

In 2017, even after his victory and effusive praise from the Supreme Court, he refused to abide by the second part of the judgment: That IEBC organise a fresh presidential election pitting the top two candidates in 60 days.

In the court’s decision five years ago, democracy in Kenya won big but Mr Odinga’s subsequent actions cost him whatever had remained of his reform credentials.

He refused to run in the fresh election and demanded that the IEBC be disbanded and a new one appointed. What cheek!

Those were not his reliefs in court and even if they were, they were not granted for two good reasons.

One, it is not in the powers of the Supreme Court, nay any court, to disband a constitutional commission.

The manner to do so is clearly spelt out in the Constitution and includes the setting up of a tribunal.

Two, constituting the IEBC requires, among other things, an appointment by the President. However, during elections, the President gets into what the supreme law calls Temporary Incumbency.

Call him a half-President if you will. In that state, he cannot appoint state officers, and this is not the only limitation.

Essentially, Mr Odinga’s political demands were meant to foment extra-constitutional matters, including a caretaker government, something unknown on our shores.

During the election, he attempted a democratic shutdown by having his supporters erect roadblocks in what he considered – and probably still does – his part of Kenya.

It was not, therefore, surprising that, after all this failed and the election was held, his only other option was the handshake route, another animal unknown in law and fact.

Deep State

But it is not difficult to understand Mr Odinga’s hurt. The August election was his fifth stab at the presidency.

This time around, the stars appeared well aligned for him to feel the bubbles of victory.

Significantly, the Deep State, which he has for decades blamed for his losses, was in his corner courtesy of the handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

And with this came all that goes with state support – cash, government machinery, protocols, name it.

Yet despite all the glitter, he once again returned from the hunt empty-handed. At 77 years of age and counting, his chances of ever presiding over Kenya keep dwindling significantly, though they have not evaporated.

Maybe Mr Odinga would politically understand losing to former Presidents Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki in 1997 and 2007 respectively.

They were his seniors in the game that is politics and, in many ways, his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s pre- and post-independence peers.

But to be floored by former President Uhuru Kenyatta twice, in fact, three times because of the repeat election, and now President William Ruto could be overwhelming.

The two came into politics when Mr Odinga had had a career in the fight against the one-party dictatorship, been to detention and exile and was already in Parliament.

Elected Lang’ata MP in 1992, Mr Odinga preceded President Ruto by five years and Mr Kenyatta by 10.

When he became Prime Minister in 2008, the former President was his deputy and President Ruto his minister.

But in all due respect, politics and leadership are not about seniority, genealogy and chronology.

It is about the people and a politician’s place in it. In fact, President Ruto’s campaign platform in the last election was precisely about this – the opportunity for every Kenyan irrespective of their background, geography, origin or status, with the only meters being ability and hard work. 

What is more? Mr Odinga cannot continue acting like Kenya owes him anything more than the opportunity to offer himself for public office.

Consequently, he has no reason whatsoever to grow a penchant for bastardising national institutions, constitutional or otherwise, each waking election. In his recent threats to the IEBC and the Supreme Court, he called for reforms and with an ultimatum – by 2024!

Whose reforms? Why 2024? Is it because Mr Odinga has merely lost an election?

Will the supposed reforms mean that all that is provided for in the Constitution is thrown out expediently?

Or is the veteran politician distracting forces that are not so quiet with calls that their time is ripe and his is past?

This time around, the latter sounds more plausible. And Mr Odinga should watch the decibels going up in his party.

They are not merely about parliamentary leadership; they are deeper and will get louder if the pipes of future political growth keep narrowing.

Mr Buku is a public communication consultant; [email protected]