Azimio should go to the grassroots

Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi promised to deliver an earthquake last Sunday and he truly did, though probably not in the way he expected. Instead of standing on his own two feet and for once proving that he is the right man for the top job, he chose to betray his erstwhile colleagues in One Kenya Alliance (OKA), ostensibly because he would not play second fiddle to anyone else in the alliance. Instead, he seems to have delivered his own party and Mr Moses Wetang’ula’s anaemic Ford Kenya to Deputy President William Ruto on a platter.

Doubts linger as to whether by announcing his willingness to work with the United Development Alliance, Mr Mudavadi was creating an earthquake out of a minor tremor, but one thing is quite clear: He grabbed Kenya’s politics by the neck, shook it vigorously and turned it upside down. 

Although some spin-doctors are saying the decision will have no impact on who finally becomes president, this cannot be true, otherwise the loud lamentations would not be sounding like those of a jilted lover.

Many commentators are saying that Mr Mudavadi has dealt a deadly blow to his future political ambitions, while others insist that it was a stroke of genius after studying the unfolding situation and concluding that the Hustler Movement was the way to go. 

It is not for me to say who is right, but one argument must be dispensed with forthwith: those screaming betrayal are not being sincere, for the man has undergone political betrayals that would have shaken anyone’s confidence.

Neglecting the small towns

If Mr Mudavadi expected to be endorsed by his fellow OKA principals as the presidential flag-bearer, it didn’t happen and so he was advised by his followers to decamp. In the past he has been betrayed by Jubilee (the madimoni episode), and by ODM’s Raila Odinga who decamped to the ruling party through the handshake and effectively broke up the National Super Alliance (Nasa). In a sense then, he was paying back in kind by cosying up to Mr Ruto. As the poet said, all is fair in love and war. He should have included politics too.

But there is also the discomfiting feeling that Mr Mudavadi did not so much join UDA but get swallowed up whole. 

If he indeed does have an impact in the fortunes of that party, it’s because he will have helped a lot in sanitising it. While his reputation may not be squeaky clean, it is not as soiled as that of some people he now wants to associate with. Whether this move is good or plainly dumb will only become clear after August 8.

In the meantime, a word of unsolicited advice to the Azimio la Umoja movement. A lot has been written about the Hustlers’ perceived “dominance” in Mt Kenya region, and while this may not necessarily be true, perceptions do have a tendency of turning into reality if not handled well. 

Unless Azimio strategists change tactics on how to “climb” the mountain, they will fail. They need to climb down instead and start all over at the grassroots. 

There is no point in organising huge rallies in major towns and neglecting the small towns and settlements. Right now, their presence is not being felt on the ground.

Take for instance the meeting arranged for Mr Odinga in Thika town, the second in a month. The crowd is likely to be huge but you can bet very few people in the surrounding rural areas will abandon their hustles to go listen to Baba. 

Abstain or vote for the Hustler

If he is interested in Gatundu votes, for instance, why doesn’t he make himself more visible by going on a whirlwind tour of small towns in the two constituencies and canvassing for them? If he is to harness votes from Githunguri, why doesn’t he familiarise himself with ordinary people’s wishes by talking to them in their backyards?

Even taking into account Mr Odinga’s age, all this can be done in one day. The greatest mistake his handlers can make is to take it for granted that Gatundu and Githunguri voters will rush to Azimio just because the President hails from there. 

Many of them are saying they will either abstain or vote for the Hustler, mainly because they feel bitter with Jubilee, claiming it failed them, and even more bitter with the President on the same grounds. 

Many of these folks are idlers waiting for handouts, but a small number who expected government contracts may be equally disgruntled. I always thought such arguments strange because they are, on the whole, products of unfulfilled expectations brought about by an over-developed sense of entitlement.

Expecting special treatment just because a particular region “produced” a president has been greatly inimical to this country’s interests, for it is the main reason the quest for the presidency has become such a cut-throat affair. 

I’m not convinced that in order to benefit from government largesse, the Big Man must be from your region, but that seems to be the conventional wisdom. 

It is not just wrong, it is infantile.

Mr Ngwiri is a consultant editor; [email protected]