Second-term governors have failed presidential traits test

The attempt to identify presidential candidates who are alternative to the “old guard” is not easy. Not many names appear to come up. This is particularly so when we judge candidates on the basis of track record in addressing governance failure, strengthening rule of law, and preventing abuse of power by those who occupy public offices.

Search for candidates using track record and ability to provide solutions to these challenges reveals only a few candidates. In previous articles, I have covered Dr Fred Matiang’i, Prof Kivutha Kibwana, and Dr Mukhisa Kituyi). There are, of course, individuals who have these abilities but most of them are shy of political competition. Who these shy individuals are is a story for another day.

This challenge raises the need to identify alternative candidates from among the 22 governors who are in their second term of office. Who among the 22 has demonstrated ability to address governance challenges, rule of law, or has not abused office during the last two terms? Who among them has improved service delivery in the county to a point where the county can be a reference point for national comparison? Unfortunately, if we take this approach, then only Prof Kibwana qualifies. This again means we must broaden the criteria to include matters devolution.

After the passing of the 2010 Constitution, many Kenyans expected that future presidents would come from those who have served either as county governors or senators. This thinking was informed by the practise in the US from which the 2010 Constitution has borrowed some provisions. Some of the presidential candidates in the US have served either as senators or state governors.

After the March 2013 elections, many people thought that the governors would be effective in delivering services in the counties and that senators would similarly discharge their duty of defending devolution at the national level. It was expected that governors would deliver on the objects of devolution, improve on public participation and be much more accountable to voters.

Future presidential candidates

Senate was considered a House for the most experienced politicians. Because of their experience, people expected that future presidential candidates would come from the Senate.

It is now over nine years since the 2013 elections. This expectation has not been met. Devolution has had an unintended consequence. Experienced politicians devolved themselves to the county. They followed resources. Those who were good in Senate also abandoned the House in 2017 and went back to the village, the county. They followed the county resources.

This experiment of building national leaders using governors and the Senate has failed. It is no wonder that only a few second-term governors can be identified as credible enough to develop a national agenda and mobilise Kenyans towards achieving it.

Many senators have also not proved themselves to be national leaders. They behave like local level county leaders and have neglected the national agenda. But to be fair to senators, a few of them such as James Orengo, Mutula Kilonzo Jnr and Johnson Sakanja, have lived to the expectation of presenting and articulating national issues. They are neither local nor parochial. Of course, there are occasions when they, too, become local. Their ethnic kingpins cow them down or have them do things they would not otherwise do.

Notwithstanding inadequate number of governors to consider as presidential candidates, there are a few worth an audit. Some have a track record in service delivery in their counties, but have failed to profile themselves as national leaders. All the same, they have the ability to develop a national agenda and can mobilise towards its achievement.

Governor Wycliffe Oparanya

The Kakamega governor is one of the few governors who have declared interest in vying for the presidency in 2022. Although he has declared interest, he has not explained his national agenda. This can only be assumed by reviewing his performance as the governor of Kakamega County, former chair of Council of Governors, former Cabinet Minister, and performance as a deputy party leader of the Orange Democratic MOvement (ODM).

Mr Oparanya won the Butere parliamentary seat in 2002 and was re-elected in 2007. He served as the Minister for Planning, National Development and Vision 2030 in the coalition government of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga. The coalition government had internal governance challenges that impacted service delivery, including policy gridlock and divisions in the Cabinet.

Backstabbing among Cabinet ministers was an everyday phenomenon. Those from President Kibaki’s party in the coalition viewed the Mr Odinga’s members in the coalition as junior partners. They were greatly frustrated in their efforts to deliver. Those from Odinga’s party disrespected those from Kibaki’s side too, but lacked the power for injurious consequences.

Mr Oparanya served in Mr Odinga’s party in the coalition and as the minister responsible for Planning and National Development. To his credit, Mr Oparanya, planning guided national development. Planning informed the national budget making process. There was meaningful public participation in making decisions on sector budgets and plans. Evidence and data played an important part in making national decisions.

The importance of planning in national development had been institutionalised before the coalition government. Prof Anyang Nyong’o had strengthened this framework for national development much earlier when he was appointed the Minister for Planning in the first government of President Kibaki in 2003. He brought on board renowned policy analysts and economists to support the ministry and to lay a stable framework for policy-making.

Mr Oparanya, therefore, inherited a stable framework for national development planning and did not disrupting it. He strengthened engagement with the African Union’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM).

This experience helped when he became the governor for Kakamega. He has been strong on planning and use of data. He has been strong in provision of services. He has built more health facilities and the number of medical doctors in the county has doubled during his tenure. The number of ECD teachers and facilities has also increased by a huge margin. Locals also point at improved conditions of roads during his tenure.

The governor values the work of professionals too. He is one governor who uses professionals and technical experts. He listens and implements decisions based on sound advice and evidence. This is an added value because politicians listen to themselves or to stories in the street. He is different.

Devolution

But when he became the CoG chair, one would have expected him to profile the council and devolution to a higher status than what he inherited. Unfortunately, he assumed leadership of the council when the national government had already weakened devolution by delaying disbursement of funds to the counties. National government ministries continued to carry out functions meant for the counties. They have failed to transfer these functions and the allocated budgets.

Had Mr Oparanya fought hard to step up the authority of the counties at the national level, probably he would have emerged as a good alternative presidential candidate.

He handled a belligerent national government with gloves. He did not confront the National Treasury or the ministries of Agriculture and Health, which have continued to undermine devolution since 2013.

Instead, he continued to plead with them, expecting them to release their power and benefits for the sake of devolution. He missed the opportunity. All the same, he would add value if Kenyans were to think about service delivery as an important quality for presidential candidates.

The governor is also the deputy party leader of ODM. Of course, you cannot do anything that can be noticed if you have a towering political figure like Mr Odinga as your boss. Nonetheless, in his tenure as the governor, he has been able to keep Kakamega under lock and key as an ODM stronghold. Why he has not locked other Luhya counties tells a lot about the complex nature of Luhya politics.

A point to underline with second-term governors is that only a few can pass the test of presidential candidates. But in future, things may change.

There are first-term governors such as Ndiritu Muriithi in Laikipia and Lee Kinyajui in Nakuru, who appear to be cutting a different path from the first group of governors. Whether these first-timers will win a second term in the 2022 elections and perform well to measure up as presidential candidates is a matter of wait and see.

All the same, the American model of raising governors and senators as future presidents appear to be failing here in Kenya.

Prof Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi. [email protected]; @karutikk