Prepare for Somaliland’s recognition

Kenya should prepare for the potential geopolitical shifts in the Horn of Africa as the international recognition of Somaliland becomes more likely. The self-declared republic parted ways with Somalia in the early 1990s after three decades of political union.

Credible reports indicate that the incoming United States President Donald Trump is considering recognising Somaliland to strengthen his country’s foothold in the strategic region and advance American security, economic and political interests. China and other countries have established military bases in neighbouring Djibouti to project power beyond their borders. Some of Trump’s influential former and current foreign policy advisers have publicly supported the recognition. These include Peter Pham, former Africa envoy in Trump’s first term and Bruce LeVeil, a long-term senior Trump adviser.

Additionally, Scott Perry, a legislator in the US Congress, recently introduced a Bill to recognise Somaliland. This is significant since he serves in the Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee and is a close Trump ally. Jendayi Frazer, former US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs under the George W. Bush administration, has publicly expressed regret for not advocating more strongly for Somaliland’s recognition while in office. The recognition appears to be a matter of when, not if.

Being a diplomatic, economic and military heavyweight, US recognition of Somaliland is likely to spur other countries in the region and beyond to follow suit. Somalia will initially be upset by Somaliland’s recognition, but with the right incentives, it is likely to come to terms with it in the medium to long term.

A key plank in Somaliland’s case for recognition is that it was an independent country after gaining freedom from Britain on June 26, 1960. Thirty-five countries recognised it, including Britain, China and France, before it voluntarily merged with Southern Somalia, which was colonised by Italy. It now seeks to regain what it lost, not redraw colonial borders.

Somaliland’s recognition would have significant implications in the complex chessboard that is the Horn of Africa. The new country is expected to become a magnet for competing geopolitical interests. In light of this, Kenya should prepare by strategically mapping potential opportunities and expanding existing ones. Currently, thousands of Kenyans, including teachers, work in Somaliland and contribute to its growth. They also send remittances back home in Kenya. Untapped opportunities still exist in financial services, renewable energy, telecommunications, real estate and agriculture, among others.

Other countries in the region and beyond are also weighing their options and how best to respond or influence outcomes. For instance, Ethiopia is interested in an independent Somaliland to negotiate access to affordable ports for its imports and exports. Countries in neighbouring Middle East, many of which are US allies, may be looking to expand investments in key sectors.

Mr Ahmed and Mr Jamah lead the Global South Forum, a politics and development think tank. [email protected].