Karua v Waiguru: Gender factor in presidential poll

Narc Kenya Party leader Martha Karua. 

Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group

Clearly, it is now a matter of when, not if, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will declare his fifth bid for the presidency in next year’s general election. That shapes the race as a tight contest between the top two candidates — Mr Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto, who would be making his first stab at State House. With both enjoying massive following, the deal breaker will be the choice of running mate.

Kenyan politics is shaped by regional numbers. Those with the larger vote count strategically come together to cash in on the “tyranny of numbers”. This has been validated by the pattern whereby regional blocs vote in one direction almost to a man.

Each of the men is eyeing the bigger chunk of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s political backyard, the expansive Mount Kenya bloc. Not keen to field a presidential candidate after the President’s retirement, it is banking on its numerical might to produce the Deputy President. Mr Odinga and Dr Ruto need to team up with a son or daughter of the ‘Mountain’.

It is the 21st Century and the entire world is most excited about the rising role of women in leadership. US President Joe Biden’s victory against the incumbent, Donald Trump, was largely thanks to his choice of running mate. And Dr Kamala Harris checked both the gender and racial inclusion boxes.

Patriarchal stance

In Kenya, most voters are young people, who can be said to depart from the patriarchal stance of the older generations. They believe in the potential of women to deliver just as well as men. Cognizant of this, the gender card will play a vital role in the poll.

Anne Waiguru, the Kirinyaga County governor, had been seen to position herself as the next regional headpin. Soon after the ‘Handshake’ between President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, she was among the most vocal remaining loyalists of the President’s and was seen to be cordial towards Mr Odinga. Pundits started teasing of a Raila-Waiguru ticket against Dr Ruto and his running mate. Interestingly, she recently jumped ship, decamping from the ruling Jubilee Party, joining the DP’s ‘Hustler’ movement. She is viewed as Dr Ruto’s best bet for running mate.

Waiguru’s political nemesis, Narc-Kenya party leader Martha Karua, though backing the ‘Handshake’, applied her signature iron vocals against its offshoot, the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).

With the BBI’s legal woes, most Mt Kenya politicians differed with the DP’s stand that all other parties fold and merge with his United Democratic Movement (UDA). As the dissent brought them together to negotiate for the upcoming polls, one group picked Ms Karua as their spokesperson. The Odinga camp and the Jubilee faction loyal to the President are keen on having her on their side.

The developments will shape the next polls as an epic battle between the daughters of Kirinyaga for the second-in-command position. Their initial rivalry played out in the 2017 gubernatorial contest, in which Ms Waiguru pipped Ms Karua. And now, voters are yearning for a rematch in the coming polls, in which their contest is being elevated to the national stage. An epic battle of the female ‘DPs’ is sure to excite the race in unprecedented ways.

Mr Kwinga is a political scientist. skwinga@ gmail.com.