How US-China conflict over Xinjiang risk Africa’s energy future

Attempts by the United States and allies to dismantle the solar industry in Xinjiang autonomous region over allegations of forced labour carry huge implications for cutting global carbon emissions and energy connectivity in developing countries.

China is the world’s largest producer of solar energy products and Xinjiang has taken the lead in the country’s renewable energy revolution, enabling it to become the engine of global value chains driving uptake of solar and wind energy.

According to State Grid Corporation of China, new energy electricity generation reached 84.5 billion kilowatt-hour, accounting for 24 per cent of the total electricity produced in Xinjiang in 2020.

This is equal to the power generation capacity of 27 million tons of coal, which would have released 72.9 million tons of carbon dioxide.

Carbon neutrality

It is therefore easy to see how Xinjiang’s new energy sector will contribute to fulfilling China’s ambitious goal of reaching a carbon dioxide emissions peak before 2030, and realising carbon neutrality before 2060.

Companies based in Xinjiang produce half the world’s polysilicon - an essential material component in the solar photovoltaic manufacturing industry. Collectively, Chinese enterprises account for over 80 per cent of global polysilicon supply, according to Bloomberg. This makes Beijing a key actor in meeting the projected surge in solar panel installations as different governments around the world race to achieve carbon-neutrality commitments.

Intensifying efforts by some countries could however defer the dream of many home owners around the world to tap renewable energy sources. The US accuses China of deploying forced labour in Xinjiang, and has handed out sanctions to companies it believes are engaged in the practice. From cotton to tomatoes, the Xinjiang solar industry is increasingly coming under the scrutiny of the US and could face calls for products boycott.

Forced labour

China has repeatedly denied the allegations of forced labour in Xinjiang, accusing the US of economic sabotage through autarchic and evidence-thin efforts to blacklist Chinese companies and products. 

A number of foreign diplomats, journalists and experts including from Africa who have visited Xinjiang, report no evidence of the much touted human rights violations in the autonomous region.

Any disruption of the Chinese solar industry could spell imminent energy doom for Sub-Saharan Africa, where 578 million people still lack power connectivity, according to the World Energy Outlook published by the International Energy Agency in 2020.

Faced with huge financial, institutional, technical and bureaucratic constraints, Africa accounts for the least utilization of renewables despite having the biggest potential with solar energy resources estimated at 660 000 Terawatt-hour per year.

To reverse the undesirable trends, countries in the continent are increasingly working with China to tap renewables and boost their connectivity. In the decade ending 2020, Chinese contractors were engaged to build 17 Gigawatt new power generation capacity across Africa.

Solar panel project

Data from the International Renewable Energy Agency indicates that between 2009 and 2018, China helped upgrade solar capacity in Africa from 739 to 5,500 Megawatts while wind energy installations during the same period jumped from a paltry 108 to 6, 100 Megawatts.

In Kenya, Chinese contractors completed East Africa’s first large scale solar panel project in 2019. The 50 Megawatts facility is slated to amplify Kenya’s quest for energy sufficiency while creating jobs in the north eastern Garissa County.

 Just like with the construction sector, another advantage of Chinese enterprises in Africa’s energy sector is that they catalyse technology transfer to local agencies both at firm and individual levels. 

The growing emphasis on green recovery following the Covid-19 global health crises has only intensified the need for Africa to upscale investments in the renewable energy sector. 

Through the greening component of the Belt and Road Initiative, which has since been joined by over 44 African countries and organisations, the continent has an opportunity to work with China towards powering its industrialisation using green energy.

Africa should therefore be careful not to be drawn into the deepening geo-economic competition instigated by the US against China. The continent’s strategic interests including the pursuit of energy sufficiency must be guarded.

Twitter: @Cavinceworld