AUC outcome to influence Kenyan politics

Djibouti's Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf won the AU Commission Chairperson election, defeating Kenya's Raila Odinga and Madagascar's Richard Randriamandrato. This election outcome will significantly influence Kenya’s political dynamics by determining Odinga’s forthcoming actions and guiding national political restructuring efforts.

Odinga had shown his intention to move away from Kenyan political activities to pursue his goals on the continental stage before the AU election. In August 2024, he declared his intention to withdraw from local politics to focus exclusively on his AU chairmanship campaign. During October 2024, he stepped aside temporarily from the Orange Democratic Movement leadership roles and designated Kisumu Governor Anyang' Nyong'o as the acting leader of the party. He assured Kenyans that his AU position would not disconnect him from Kenyan political affairs as “I am not going without coming back. I am still here.”

The conclusion of the AU bid creates uncertainty about whether Odinga will return to active national politics or choose to serve as an adviser. His choice will probably affect ODM's internal structure and the entire opposition movement which will shape the political discussions before upcoming elections.

President William Ruto’s administration officially endorsed Odinga’s bid for the AU position, creating an uncommon display of political cooperation. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi commended Odinga for his visionary leadership, while the government expressed its support for his candidacy.

Transformed opposition dynamics

Odinga’s new position created doubts about his responsibilities in Kenya’s inclusive government. His victory and subsequent move to the AU position would have transformed opposition dynamics and resulted in a reconfiguration of political alliances. Now that Odinga's bid failed, attention turns to the future interactions between Odinga and the government. Odinga must decide whether to maintain his cooperative approach with the government or establish himself as the key opposition leader through adversarial tactics.

A multitude of elements played a role in determining the results of the AU election. Regional endorsements: Member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation provided substantial support for Youssouf’s candidacy and strengthened his base of supporters. Campaign dynamics: Odinga’s campaign reportedly experienced financial limitations, which could have constrained its outreach and operational effectiveness. Political alliances: The collaboration between Odinga and Ruto’s government appears to have created an impression of diminished opposition strength, which, in turn, impacted his support throughout Kenya and across Africa.

The election outcome emerged from the combined influence of regional political interactions and internal AU dynamics. The High Court of Kenya issued a landmark decision during the AU election, declaring the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya as the majority coalition in the National Assembly. The decision negated Speaker Moses Wetang’ula's previous endorsement of the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Parliamentary leadership: House leadership reorganisation must now reflect Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance’s majority position, which could change legislative goals and power relationships. Speaker’s position: The court found Wetang’ula’s simultaneous position as Speaker and Ford Kenya leader to be unconstitutional and challenged his ability to remain impartial.

AU election

The simultaneous occurrence of this judicial ruling and Odinga's defeat in the AU election has led to conjecture about hidden political strategies. Kenya now enters a phase of political reorientation, while possible changes loom over alliances and leadership structures alongside legislative plans. The AU loss, together with the High Court's support for Azimio la Umoja, created the foundation for Kenya's upcoming political era. By returning to domestic politics, Odinga stands to use the court decision to strengthen his party's presence in Parliament. He may choose to stay strategically removed while taking on an elder statesman role among opposition members.

Ruto’s government faces challenges in sustaining an inclusive administration because of the unsuccessful AU election campaign for Odinga that might worsen if Odinga re-enters the political arena as an active opponent. The change in parliamentary power may lead the opposition to challenge government policies with increased intensity. The next months will determine if Odinga will work collaboratively with the government or revert to his role as the people’s president to oppose the ruling administration. The recent political developments may lead to substantial changes in the political environment regardless of the outcome.

Mr Mohamed is a sustainable and disruptive strategies expert; [email protected].