Anger, fear and ignorance will give Kenya a Caesar moment

In the past, populism rode on fear and rage. Take the Roman Republic, for example. By the first Century BC, it had ruled over millions of people along the Mediterranean’s shores for donkey years. Although it wasn’t a flawless democracy, citizens had a greater say in their government.

But times were hard — decades of economic downturn, threats from the Middle East and political infighting had left them weary of their “uncaring” government. They wanted someone to seize control and shake up their Senate's business-as-usual mindset.

Exploiting this tidal wave of fear and anger, Julius Caesar rose to the highest levels of political power. This success alarmed Rome's old guard politicians, who tried all they could to stop him, but nothing worked. The more they vilified him, the more popular he became.

When he crossed the Rubicon River and “drained the swamp” in 49 BC, the crowds erupted in applause. But shortly thereafter, he declared himself dictator for life. By the time he died, the republican political structures had been destroyed, and the people's voice had been muffled for the rest of the Roman Empire.

Today’s populism is fueled by low education levels and a system that prioritises passing examinations and job prospects over critical thinking and analytical skills. It becomes more appealing if people are not taught to question what they hear.

Bribed to vote

Perhaps the most recent examples are the 2016 Donald Trump’s election and Brexit. According to a study, the more the number of residents in a US county with a high school diploma, the greater the shift toward Trump compared to Republican support in 2012.

Even when a slew of other factors were taken into account, such as income levels, income growth, unemployment, race, age, and immigration, education was the best match for Mr Trump’s victory.

A similar analysis of those who voted Leave in the Brexit referendum in local authority regions, showed the lower the number of people with a degree, the higher the share of the vote to leave the EU.

Surprisingly, Kenya appears to be in the same boat right now. The political campaigns have exposed our society’s moral and intellectual decline, particularly among the youth. They have little motive to be well-informed about manifestos and party ideologies.

They don't even inquire about the re-election scorecards of politicians or how their taxes have been spent in the last ten years. They make little effort to find new data and/or assess it poorly.

They are “political fans”, cheering on leaders and placing an exaggerated value on any facts that support their pre-existing political beliefs while ignoring or downplaying that which contradicts them. That’s why most of them can be bribed to vote for a certain candidate, spend sleepless nights campaigning for them, be recruited as an internet charlatan to spin, or join a gang to disrupt an opponent's rally.

They’re the angry lot. About what? They won’t tell you. Because they simply don’t know. We mustn’t allow anger, fear and ignorance to replace civic consciousness. Our democracy is a work in progress.

Mr Onyango is a Global Fellow at Moving Worlds Institute. [email protected]