Why Somalia wants another foreign force after ATMIS is done

Ten months before the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) winds up its 17-year assignment in the Horn of Africa nation, it has emerged that Mogadishu has requested a smaller mission as the successor of the AU force to act as a post-transition protection force for the local and international communities in the country.

The EastAfrican has learnt that the Federal Government of Somalia pondered the impact of the looming exit of Atmis and lodged the request in December last year in New York, for the establishment of a new mission as a post-transition protection force for the local communities and the international community.

“While Somalia has made strides in the fight against al-Shabaab, Somalia acknowledges that it is not yet ready to take over full responsibility for its security sector from Atmis by 2024,” said a spokesperson for the European Union, a key security and state building partner for Somalia.

Read: Somalia seeks three-month delay in AU force drawdown

A source told The EastAfrican that in principle, the EU and other core security partners have endorsed Somalia’s request, for which the Horn of Africa country will present a detailed proposal for the new mission to the UN Security Council at the end of March 2024.

Indeed, Catriona Laing, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, referenced this on February 19, while presenting the Secretary-General’s report on Somalia gains in security, political and regional developments from October 6, 2023 to January 24 2024, to the Security Council.

“Somalia has requested a post-Atmis smaller African Union mission, focused on protection and an evolved UN logistics support package to strengthen national systems and capacity. The independent review of the UN Support Office in Somalia will explore how to achieve this,” she said.

Coming at a time when mission fatigue has gripped the troop-contributing countries to the AU force, as well as for the funding and logistical support partners, the new mission — given its envisaged small size compared to ATMIS — has gained traction among donors.

“The EU is currently very much in line with the Somalia position, which is envisaging a lean mission, focusing on supporting the Somali security forces. Regardless of the final form that such a mission would take, the EU will continue to build the capacity of these forces,” an EU spokesperson said.

Details of the mission’s size, duration and the troop-contributing countries will emerge after Somalia submits the final plan next month, but sources familiar with the matter said it will be a multilateral AU-led force.

“Once the detailed outline for such a mission has been proposed, the EU will work with all international partners on its implementation, while continuing the EU’s steadfast support to Somalia’s security transition by developing Somalia’s own capacities,” the spokesperson added.

Read: Somalia in massive military recruitment as ATMIS exit beckons

Dr Alhadju Sarjoh Bah, director of conflict management at the AU Commission, also said that there should be consensus on the new mission to be realistic, learn from the lessons of its predecessor Amisom, be inclusive, and have full support of the AU Peace and Security Council.

The post-Atmis force will require key donors to realign their budgets for peace support operations, as they anticipated Somalia Security Forces (SSF) to take full responsibility of the country’s security after the exit of the AU mission in December 2024.

Ms Laing explained that Mogadishu sees countering al-Shabaab as its priority, but with the further drawdown of 4,000 Atmis forces in June and the mission’s closure at the end of this year, Somalia needs further logistical and financial and support to take full ownership of its security responsibility.

“Through our collective support, Somalia is demonstrating that a country can emerge from prolonged conflict to one that delivers for its people and acts as a force for good in the region,” said Ms Laing, who is also head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia.

Read: Somalia signs defence, economic cooperation deal with Turkey

The head of Atmis Mohamed El-Amine Souef, also told the Security Council that it must rally partners to support Somalia beyond the AU force’s exit, to preserve the hard-won gains and to stabilise the country, warning that al Shabaab remains a major threat.

Experts point at the “monumental task” that the Somalia security forces face, as Atmis continues its phased withdrawal, with large swathes of territory secured by 56 forward operating bases (FOBs) still under the AU force, hence the departure of 4,000 soldiers in June portends capacity gaps.

In January, Atmis completed the second phase of the drawdown which, along with the first withdrawal of uniformed military personnel in June 2023, saw a combined 5,000 troops exit Somalia, with 13 military bases handed over to Somali forces, while others were closed.

Mr Souef says that even as the AU force gradually exits Somalia, its commanders must work closely with the SSF, to ensure the safety and protection of civilians during the transition period.

“We are now moving into the most critical stage of the mission because by June we are going to draw down additional troops and you have to take into consideration force protection. It’s not easy, but we must surmount the challenges by remaining on the maximum alert during the transition period,” he said.

At a conference of troops contingent chiefs in Mogadishu this month, Atmis Force Commander Lt-Gen Sam Okiding said the sector commanders had examined Somalia’s fluid security situation and put into consideration the current al-Shabaab posture as well as the post-Atmis security situation.

Analysts say that between now and June, the joint offensive operations of Atmis and Somali forces will be decisive.