A Sudanese national flag is attached to a machine gun of Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soldiers as they wait for the arrival of Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the military council and head of RSF, before a meeting in Aprag village 60, kilometers away from Khartoum, Sudan on June 22, 2019. PHOTO | REUTERS
The war in Sudan has given Moscow an opportunity to revive an agreement to establish a military base in the Red Sea, helping it to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa region.
Either that or the Sudanese military leadership is playing Russia and the US as it pushes levers to have itself recognised as the legitimate administration of Sudan and isolate rivals Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
This week on Tuesday, Malik Agar, deputy leader of the Sudan Transitional Sovereign Council led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, visited Moscow where, a government dispatch indicated he was to discuss defence co-operation. The idea, officials indicated, was to help the junta gain arms while providing a naval logistics base to Russia at Port Sudan.
The Saf said the trip was part of efforts to “consolidate relations” with Russia, and according to a statement from the Transitional Sovereignty Council. Mr Agar, it said, was in Russia, “to discuss a number of issues with the Russian side and to participate in the activities of the 27th session of the International Economic Forum in St Petersburg.”
The deal was expected to grant Russia a coveted access to the Horn of Africa coastline, enabling it to run affairs with their contacts in the interior of Africa, just as much as it allows it to play alongside rivals who already have military bases at the Red Sea.
The Red Sea is also a vital corridor for oil and international trade.
Yet in Sudan, Russia, through its private military group Wagner, had initially played alongside the RSF before stopping. Shifting to the Sudan Armed Forces (Saf) may imply stronger political relevance as Moscow drives to compete internationally in spite of Western sanctions.
Russia is already strong in other junta-led countries of Mali and Niger. But they are both landlocked.
This change of tack by Moscow also means something new for Khartoum: Reaching out to Moscow alarms Washington, which had tried to mediate the conflict in Sudan and which has tried to de-campaign Russia among allies in Africa.
Last week, Yasser al-Atta, a member of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, and the assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Army, said Khartoum will sign agreements with the Russian government, after Moscow asked to establish a base in Port Sudan.
In turn, Moscow pledged sufficient supply of weaponry in return for a base as well as mining and mining and agricultural concessions from Sudan’s government.
The Russian news agency Sputnik, quoting Sudanese ambassador to Russia Mohamed Serraj said Khartoum had also offered ‘guarantees’ that it won’t renege on an offer for a naval logistics base. In fact, the deal had already been agreed on in principle and Russia had already started honouring part of the bargain, the report indicated. What the officials were to do this week is add timelines and reassurances on it.
In 2019, the Russian and Sudanese sides had signed an agreement on the establishment of a ‘logistics support centre’ for the Russian Navy in Port Sudan, with the facility supposed to host up to 300 Russian troops and refuel its ships.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed after a visit to Sudan last year in February that the agreement between Moscow and Khartoum on the establishment of a logistics center for the Russian Navy in Sudan is currently in the ratification stage. But that was before the war between RSF and SAF broke out in April last year.
Since then, the US efforts to mediate, through the Jeddah Process, to have both sides sign ceasefire agreements failed. The Jeddah Process includes Saudi Arabia and the African Union through regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Recently, the US backed Kenyan President William Ruto to push for a third track of civilian movements who have coalesced with rival armed groups that aren’t part of the fighting factions.
They signed a declaration in Nairobi last month, pledging to seek ceasefire, federate the country, reach out to fighting factions and leading a political transition. But that is if the Saf is willing to end the war politically. The Saf had earlier refused President Ruto’s involvement although subsequent meetings with Burhan in Nairobi had sort of thawed the rhetoric.
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on phone with Burhan, urging him to resume talks.
“Secretary Blinken and General Burhan discussed the need to urgently end the conflict in Sudan and enable unhindered humanitarian access, including cross border and cross line, to alleviate the suffering of the Sudanese people,” said a dispatch on May 28, from the US State Department.
“The Secretary also discussed the resumption of negotiations in the Jeddah platform and the need to protect civilians and deescalate hostilities in El Fasher, North Darfur.” Darfur is partially controlled by the Sudan Liberation Movement, one of the groups who signed on the declaration in Nairobi under a civilian coalition known as Taqaddum.
