South Sudan mediation faces tight schedule after four-month lull
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar.
What you need to know:
- Government delegation and that of the opposition appeared to hold on to strong positions.
- However, the two parties have agreed on most of the protocols that could lead to a deal.
The Nairobi-backed mediation for South Sudan is now facing a tight schedule of two weeks to come up with an agreement that would be acceptable to all parties, following four months of near-stall in the talks.
The mediation, commonly known as the Tumaini Peace Initiative between the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) and the South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA), the armed groups who had stayed out of a 2018 peace deal, must come up with an agreement within 14 days as per the November 6 joint communique issued in Juba by presidents Salva Kiir and William Ruto.
Despite the newly found goodwill from the parties following the relaunch of the talks on November 4 after it stalled in July, there is guarded optimism as the heads of the government delegation and that of the opposition appeared to hold on to their strong positions.
The deadline itself may not be a tough thing to meet: the participants had agreed on most of the protocols that could lead to a deal. They had even initialed on those protocols, signaled end of discussion on the varied subject areas.
They include; Confidence-Building Measures; Communal violence and Land Issues; Justice Sector Reforms, Transitional Justice and Accountability; Security Sector Reforms; Permanent Constitution Process; Economic Recovery; Humanitarian Access and Support; and Responsibility/Power Sharing.
The remaining protocols are the Trust and Confidence Building Protocol, the Guarantors Protocol, and the Implementation Matrix.
Chief Mediator, Gen (Rtd) Lazaro Sumbeiywo explained that the Trust and Confidence Building protocol would open favourable momentum in the negotiations.
“While the protocol on guarantors provided for cooperation between the government of South Sudan and partners to work together with a view of strengthening the implementation through the mechanisms of National Leadership Council (NLC) and National Implementation Oversight Commission (NIOC),” said Gen Sumbeiywo.
The Head of the new TGoNU Delegation, Gen Kuol Manyang Juuk, who is a former critic of the Tumaini Initiative, maintained that the Tumaini Initiative must not operate in isolation or parallel to the 2018 agreement officially known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).
“It should complement and align with R-ARCSS which is the foundation of our peace process. By integrating Tumaini’s structures — such as its leadership and oversight mechanisms — with those of R-ARCSS, we can avoid duplication and ensure a streamlined peace process,” he said.
Gen Juuk, who is also a senior presidential advisor, recently changed his mind about supporting the process due to public opinion, after previously maintaining that Tumaini should not be seen as a parallel agreement to the R-ARCSS.
On the other hand, the leader of SSOMA, Pagan Amum said that the opposition is hoping that the new government delegation has come to address the remaining protocol of the Tumaini Consensus, and not to raise fresh concerns and revisions to derail the process.
He said that the government delegation after consultations in Juba returned with significant revisions, concerns and additions to the protocols that the opposition and stakeholders have previously conceded to and adopted in the interest of making peace.
“Regrettably, we were taken aback by the fact that the government team that negotiated and agreed with us for several months has been changed and replaced by a new team,” said Mr Amum.
The government wants the Tumaini Consensus as an annex to the R-ARCSS, the Opposition wants it as a stand-alone agreement, while the Stakeholders — which include civil society, women, youth, and faith-based leaders — have proposed that it should encompass both.
Before the talks took a break in July due to disagreement on the nature and the tone of some protocols, the talks — that began in May — had agreed on eight protocols.
Gen Juuk said that he had been requested by President Ruto and the mediators to persuade Gen Thomas Cirillo, the leader of the National Salvation Front (NAS) and Gen Simon Gatwech Dual, the leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang Faction and others to join the Tumaini Initiative so that the country can have a comprehensive approach to bringing peace to South Sudan.
“Tumaini cannot be a rescue package if it leaves out other armed opposition groups in the bushes of South Sudan fighting the government,” said Gen Juuk.
But both Gen Cirillo and Gen Dual — who broke away from the main SPLM-IO in August 2021 — have always maintained that the Tumaini Initiative is a ploy by President Kiir to lure all none-signatories to the 2018 peace agreement to Juba so that they can be contained just like he has done with Dr Riek Machar.
But Mr Amum maintains that SSOMA’s commitment to the attainment of peace and the transition to democracy is unwavering.
“This is clearly illustrated by the fact that we have patiently waited for the government delegation whenever they travelled to Juba for consultation on numerous occasions,” he said.
