Russia’s enhanced naval interest in Djibouti is straining regional geopolitics

Russia’s dalliance with Djibouti is showing the former’s increasing interest in the Horn of Africa region which is believed to be one of the richest in terms of oil and rare metals and is also a strategic route for both trade and access to the African continent.

While the US and China have traditionally been the superpowers flexing their muscles in the region - and by extension across the continent - Russia’s entrance into the fray rocks the Horn of Africa-global geopolitics’ balance.

The US’ interests in Djibouti, by far, outweigh numerous other superpowers’ stakes in the region, making President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh toying with Moscow a precarious undertaking. Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, is Washington's biggest military base in Africa.

Just recently, an attempted revolt by Russia’s paramilitary unit, PMC Wagner Group exposed underlying revelations between the country’s government and the paramilitary company that also has vast interests in Africa.

PMC Wagner Group, which operates under different names, is active and has bases in countries like the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Chad, Guinea Bissau, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo and Madagascar. The paramilitary group’s influence - which keeps expanding by the day - also extends to the Gulf of Aden, at the Red Sea-Arabian Sea region in countries including Yemen and Djibouti.

Political uncertainty

Outgoing commander of US Africa Command Gen. Stephen J. Townsend in July 2022 said Russia has expanded its influence in Africa through the proxy group, which has contributed to instability and political uncertainty.

“Though the Kremlin likes to deny it publicly, they are an arm of the Kremlin, and they are doing President Putin’s bidding,” Townsend said. “The only thing I see Wagner doing is propping up dictators and exploiting natural resources on the continent.”

Wagner Group’s support for Russia’s dictatorship comes in the form of guarding the interests of president Vladimin Putin administration, such as key infrastructure and mineral resources in its countries of operation. Wagner and its associated network of shadowy companies are believed to have been offered a degree of control over gold and diamond-mining, along with logging in Africa.

In Africa, Wagner mercenaries frequently have an advantage over poorly equipped and poorly trained rebel groups or unarmed civilians rather than the highly trained and well-equipped Soldiers they face in Ukraine.

The motivation in Africa is Wagner’s mining operations in Sudan and the Central African Republic that produce millions of dollars in mineral wealth that support its African operations and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, Central Bank of Sudan whistleblower told CNN that $1.9 billion worth of gold from Africa went to Russia by shipment.

Even with the attempted mutiny in Russia, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, has hitherto been said to be a close confidant of President Putin since earlier times.

As Russia seeks to have greater influence in Africa, Wagner Group is likely to be as much a key part of these forays, presenting a scenario that could be far from being amicable, amid all the colliding interest in the Horn of Africa region.

For starters, Djibouti’s geographical location makes it a key country of interest for the global superpowers. Some of these large countries already have military bases in Africa and have opted to station their armed forces in the former French colony.

Military cooperation

Russia has in recent past years, similarly, been making efforts to make its presence felt in the region as it enhances its military cooperation with Djibouti, especially in maritime terms.

In March this year, rigged with Zircon hypersonic weapons, a Russian frigate named Admiral Gorshkov made a two-day stop in the international port of Djibouti.

Officials from the two countries then held discussions on strengthening the security situation and framework of the Horn of Africa region, including the safety of maritime navigation.

The Djibouti visit came during a three-day (March 26-28, 2023) tour of two Russian warships - Admiral Gorshkov and a medium tanker named KAMA - around the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea. The two marine vessels were then taking supplies to Russia’s military forces based in the region and giving them a personnel break, according to the Russian embassy.

“As part of the tour, officials from Moscow and Djibouti discussed, among other things, issues related to the safety of navigation off the coast of Africa and in the Red Sea region,” the embassy then said in a statement. “Our partners fully support the friendly actions of the Russian Navy, which not only meets the interests of developing Russian-Djibouti relations but are also of great importance for strengthening the security architecture of the Horn of Africa."

Previously, Russia had already had talks with Djibouti to strengthen cooperation in the political, trade, economic, investment, education, and health fields, as well as the implementation of potential joint projects.

Djibouti's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, also visited Moscow in June 2022, where he took part in diplomatic talks during which Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed his country's readiness to coordinate efforts to increase bilateral economic cooperation between the two countries.

Russian consulate indicated that this latest long-term tour by Russian warships ‘will serve as an additional impetus to further strengthen cooperation with the East African state which enjoys a favourable geostrategic location.’

For the largest country globally in total area, Djibouti’s strategic significance is also based on the fact that it is the key and most reliable - and perhaps the only - seaport country for its landlocked neighbours like Ethiopia and South Sudan.

Also, the impasse that has long existed between Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea increases the strategic significance of Djibouti as an entry point to any of the Horn of Africa region’s nations.

Strategic interests

While China has strategic interests in the entire Africa region, its interests appear to be more focused on investment. And the fact that the Asian country built a railway line between the port of Djibouti and Addis Ababa, means that Russia could use this rail line to boost its own relations with the region and create more strategic depth.

Russia has reportedly previously tried to establish a base in Djibouti but hadn't yet succeeded, because of US pressure, to convince the small eastern African country. However, not deterred, Moscow is still focusing on the creation of its military base on the shores of the Red Sea, just like it did in the days of the Soviet Union and the Cold War.

Then, Russia attempted to keep a permanent military presence in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa to facilitate supply to its naval operations in the region.

Nonetheless, China reportedly offered Moscow a ‘base’ to allow the Russian aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov land at its base to facilitate the deployment of vessels to Syria at short notice during the Syrian conflict.

In March this year, Russia, China and Iran held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. Washington said the joint drills pose no new threat, but deepening ties between the rival states would be closely monitored.

As the fight for the soul of Djibouti continues, the country’s population continues to suffer through unemployment, endemic corruption and systemic poverty.