Democracy on trial in Africa as 19 countries hold polls in coming months

A third of Africa’s voters will head to the polls in this year, amid fears of voter apathy, violence and an uncompromising opposition in a majority of at least 19 African countries.

A post-election storm in gathering in Comoros, who held presidential elections January 14.

Senegal is going to the polls in February, Togo in March, South Africa in May, and Mauritania in June.

In East Africa, Rwanda is voting in July. Rwanda’s July 15 election will be different in that it will comprise presidential and parliamentary polls. President Paul Kagame is seeking a fourth term.

The semi-autonomous Somalia state, Somaliland, has slated elections for November while South Sudan has said it will hold its first-ever general election this December.

Read: South Sudan polls to be held on schedule

The coup-hit Mali, Chad and Burkina Faso will also vote if the junta leaders allow it. October will perhaps be the busiest month, with elections in Mozambique, Botswana and Tunisia.

Ghanaians and Algerians are also set to vote later in the year.

Civil society observers say 2024 will be a huge test to democracy.

“Africa going for 19 elections in this year is kind of putting us in a situation where we are expectant and at the same time dread because what we are seeing is a picture of selfishness from African leaders who are not allowing democracy to unfold in the manner it is supposed to,” said Faides Tembatemba, executive director at Civil Society for Poverty Reduction in Zambia.

“We are seeing people wanting to cling on to power but not bringing about the desired development for the African people. We are expecting an African leadership that is selfless and willing to see democracy grow.”

She cited last year’s elections in Zimbabwe, where the election observers faulted the process and the results. President Emmerson Mnangagwa won the presidential election.

Read: Foreign observers say Zimbabwe poll not free and fair

International observers at the African Union, Freedom House and the Carter Centre noted multiple reports of intimidation and fraud in the election, putting the result in doubt.

Although the elections are being held and winners announced, potential impacts of fraudulent elections could mean lower turnouts in the future and bigger challenges for countries already struggling with poverty, crushing debt, inflation, and a lack of access to education and nutrition.

“We do not want to see the story of Zimbabwe repeated. The will of the people should prevail,” Ms Tembatemba said.

According to Open Society Foundation, the decline of democracy seems imminent going by the most recent elections on the continent.

Low voter turnout, violence and coups d’état were witnessed last due to election practices and manipulated results.

George Kegoro, Policy and Engagement Advocacy Director at the Open Society Foundation, Nairobi, said the slow death is evident on the continent, citing the Comoros case, where just 16 percent of the voters turned out to cast ballots.

“In Africa voters are opting not to go to the polls because they don’t think the elections make sense,” Mr Kegoro said, citing a number of African countries that went to the polls last year.

He said that Nigeria had the worst voter turnout among the top 20 countries in Africa, and the second-worst in the world.

Read: Intrigues, upsets cloud Nigeria polls

“We already had big elections in Africa last year, and the biggest was Nigeria, where there was voter apathy. This is the likely scenario this year,” Mr Kegoro said.

Election Evidence Nigeria Project, an independent researcher, blamed voter apathy to perceived electoral inequality, security concerns, violence, governance issues, voter cynicism, and the broader political culture.

Comoros vote rigging claims

In Comoros, the first African country to hold elections this year, voting took place on January 14, handing a fourth five-year term to President Azali Assoumani, whom five opponents accused of vote rigging.

President Assoumani won 62.97 percent of the vote, according to the national electoral commission.

An overnight curfew has been imposed in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation, after violent protests against President Assoumani's re-election.

Read: Comoros post-election violence turns deadly

Out of a population of 800,000 people only 338,980 are registered voters.

Henry Maina, a lecturer at University of Nairobi’s School of Journalism, said the fact that democracy has been on the decline is no new.

“If we don’t find ways of redistribution of state wealth, political democracy in and of itself is going to be more challenging, especially in hard economic times,” he said.

The biggest race is in South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since the advent of democracy in 1994, is fighting for survival.

Read: Revealed: S.Africa hurtling towards ‘failed state’

Swapo, the liberation movement in neighbouring Namibia, is in a similar position, while in Mozambique, the ruling Frelimo has not yet picked a presidential candidate.

“We still have a critical population in those countries that understand what it means not to be free. So, they will still vote for liberation parties,” Mr Maina said.

“But now the liberation parties such as ANC and Swapo, unlike before, are under a lot of pressure to show that they can offer other than just liberation.”

He said the challenge is not only for the liberation parties but also for regional ruling parties such as the Rwanda Patriotic Front, Uganda’s National Resistance Movement and Tanzania’s Chama cha Mapinduzi.

“President Yoweri Museveni says he helped Uganda stabilise but now the question is what if the country has stabilised because there are people who never saw war and so now, they are 60 or 70 percent of the country. You can’t tell them liberation issues — that is not what will give them economic survival because economics is now informing the decisions people take on the political front.”