Flying blind: Ruto’s visa-free gamble amid security fears

Kenya’s big gamble to be a visa-free country for all international visitors from next month has turned the spotlight on the possible unintended consequences, including its passport’s standing in world rankings ad the country’s standing as a regional hub.

This comes even as questions remain on when the laws regulations that will back the new policy will be implemented and what they may entail.

The upsurge in economic refugees from neighbouring countries and concerns about the integrity of the passport-issuing process, which could allow some foreigners to bribe their way into getting Kenyan citizenship, have in recent years wiped the sheen off the travel document.

In 2023, Kenya’s passport slipped to position 69 from 65 in 2022, while the country currently ranks 73 on the list of visa-free destinations, according to the Guide Passport Ranking Index.

Even more ominous for Kenyans, foreign diplomats in Nairobi warn, is that the indiscriminate visa waiver announced by President William Ruto could swing the doors wide open for international organised crime syndicates. This is after Nairobi and Mombasa were ranked higher than Nigeria and South African cities as Africa’s crime hubs.

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The latter were until 2019 ranked by Interpol as key source countries in Africa for human trafficking, money laundering and illicit mineral trafficking, according to the Africa Organised Crime Index 2023: Increasing Criminality, Growing Vulnerabilities report launched in Nairobi on November 24. The study was done by Enact, an international non-governmental organisation that focuses on trans-border organised crime and funded by the European Union (EU) for the African Union AU.

As the presidential directive comes into effect, the Weekly Review has established that relevant ministries and the Legislature —which adjourned sittings on December 7 until February—are scratching their heads on the laws and regulations that will guide the implementation of the new visa policy.

However, the chairman of the National Assembly’s Departmental Committee on Defence, Intelligence and Foreign Relations says he does not anticipate the “roll-in roll-out” policy to imperil Kenya’s strategic national security, economic and political interests.

Responding to inquiries about preparedness to deal with the expected influx of visitors, the chairman of the committee, Nelson Koech, said his office had not received details of the new immigration policy.

“However, the Executive cannot make the announcement without adequate consultation and preparations,” Mr Koech’s office said on Thursday.

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Key ministries and government departments are said to be in a quandary over the implementation of the directive made on Jamhuri Day, even as it elicited massive interest and applause from across Africa.

This is because Kenya’s open visa policy has overtaken the full roll-out of the African Passport as part of the AU’s  “migration towards e-passports, and with it the abolishment of visa requirements for all African citizens in all African countries” as spelt out in the body’s Vision 2063.

The dilemma in the security and economic sectors follows intelligence—at home and abroad—that East Africa is at present red-flagged by Interpol and EU intelligence and security agencies as a hotspot for transnational organised crime, including smuggling, cybercrime, gun-running and mineral trafficking.

“East Africa drives the continental averages for human smuggling, extortion and protection racketeering, arms trafficking and human trafficking. The two most pervasive criminal markets in the region are human trafficking and arms trafficking, which both scored 7.78 in 2023,” the Africa Organised Crime Index 2023report notes. 

Weeks before the decision comes into effect on January 1, details of Kenya’s readiness to process increased arrivals are muddled, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs informing Weekly Review that “it is too early to say anything” after President Ruto’s announcement.

On Thursday, Government Spokesman Isaac Mwaura allayed fears about the directive and said those seeking entry into the country will have to apply electronically before travelling and are only allowed to stay for a maximum of three months. The new policy, he added, would boost tourism and facilitate trade across the continent.

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Personal Protection Services Managing Director George Musamali warned that Kenya is on the cusp of self-destruction since foreign criminals are already embedded in the country and calling the shots.

The pork barrelling by drug and human traffickers, Musamali noted, offers the criminals who sometimes pose as senior officials of international agencies, incentives to corrupt the system and fast-track travel documents for refugees. He pointed out that even before the recent announcement, Congolese, South Sudanese, Rwandans, Burundians and Central Africa Republic citizens preferred western Kenya as an entry point.

“Influx of foreigners has security and governance consequences. Unregulated movement into the country presents a risk and the government is falling into the hands of criminals,” the security expert said.

Cognisant of the imminent territorial integrity threat as well as the political and economic threats that will be caused by the expected increase of travellers into Kenya, Parliament was said to be working on policy guidelines and legislation to subject visitors to rigid screening to rein in transnational crime.

“In the legislative proposal, we would need to also safeguard key strategic and national needs of Kenya and Kenyans, including protection of our economy and other critical aspects of the State such as defence and national security, alongside other pre-existing international obligations,” Mr Koech said.

He added that the National Assembly is preparing for the anticipated influx of foreigners after the removal of visa barriers, to ensure Kenya is not swarmed by those who can endanger the country’s national security, economy and democracy.

The Belgut MP said the specifics of the legislation are not ready but will be centred around hedging against human trafficking and smuggling and contraband goods.

Reached for comment, Interanal Security and National Administration Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo explained that top on the list of legislation and policies to be developed are those aimed at protection of economic, security and political interests of the country.

“The removal of visa requirement is an advantage to Kenya. It will open up Kenya to business and this will be harnessed to position Kenya as a business hub in the expanded economic region in line with Africa Continental Free Trade Area. There is the threat of security and terrorism, but we are exploring how we will share intelligence and information (with other countries) to ensure Kenya’s territorial integrity is not interfered with,” Dr Omollo said.

However, Third Alliance party leader Ekuru Aukot said the “roadside” decision by President Ruto is populist and is making Kenya a laughingstock internationally.

“Where is reciprocity in the open visa policy? We cannot open borders to foreigners who can’t allow Kenyans into their own countries. The economic benefits Ruto is talking about are a mirage. It is going to relegate Kenya to a playground for international criminals,” said Dr Aukot.

According to Statistica, an international agency that tracks global travel and tourism, visa reciprocity is a sticking point in the African Visa Openness Initiative. The agency notes that regional reciprocity remains a testy issue in existing economic blocs.

Kenya is a leading exporter of skilled labour in Africa in virtually every field—medicine, education, research, conservation, mining, human resource and communication, among others. This has been a source of resentment towards Kenyans in some countries, which has seen them place barriers against Kenyans to protect jobs and business opportunities.

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Dr Omollo acknowledges that opening borders to the rest of the world may not be automatically reciprocated.

“These are ongoing conversations and we hope to iron out the rough edges along the way. It is not a one-off event,” he said.

On the expected bottlenecks, Mr Koech explained: “We are ready as the committee that oversights the Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs to collaboratively work with the respective State departments to craft the necessary guidelines based on the broader objectives and benefits of the same to Kenya.”

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s office informed the Weekly Review that the matter is still under consideration and the ministry was not be ready to comment on it substantively until issues to do with security, governance, external trade, people, goods and services movements are fully addressed and agreed upon by relevant departments.

Directorate of Criminal Investigations boss Mohamed Amin did not respond to calls or messages sent via WhatsApp.